I almost never take run line bets. And when I do take the run line, it is never on the home team. The run line is just so tough to cover when you are only getting eight innings to do so. But late in the baseball season, when some teams have clearly given up, and have no interest in winning baseball games, exceptions are made. That is what happened last night when I backed the Colorado Rockies at home against the Philadelphia Phillies.
I was able to back the Rockies on the run line and pick up some nice dog money at +109. The Rockies had completely dominated the series up until this point as they scored ten runs in each of the first two games of the series. And even though I hate taking home run line bets, I took a shot on them and expected another blowout.
And that is exactly what we got. The Rockies embarrassed the Phillies for the third consecutive day, hammering them 14-0. That brings the three-game series total combined score to 34-4. The Phillies are leaving fans with a bad taste in their mouths to end this once promising season, as this was a solid team all year long and it is sad to see them just give up like this. The loss was the seventh straight for Philly, five of which have been decided by multiple runs. They aren’t losing games, they are getting blown out.
With this recent surge, the Rockies have won six straight games, Colorado has managed to pass the Dodgers for first place in the National League West Division. They hold a half of a game lead over L.A., and if the last three games are any indication, the Rockies are going to keep pouring it on to lock up the division title. For today’s pick, I will stay right here with these red-hot Rockies and break down game four of this series with the Phillies.
The Philadelphia Phillies are Colorado Thursday for game four of a four-game series with the Rockies. In what has been an embarrassing series so far, the Phillies will try and save some face tonight in the series finale. The Rockies, on the other hand, have finally passed the Dodgers for first place and are keeping the pedal to the metal tonight at home.
Starting for the Phillies is Jake Arrieta (10-10 3.94 ERA), and for the Rockies, it is Antonio Senzatela (6-6 4.52 ERA). The Rockies are -173 home favorites. The game total over-under is set at eleven runs. First pitch is scheduled for 12:10 PM PST from Coors Field in Colorado.
If this were a middle of the season game, this would be a great spot to back the Phillies and pick up a bunch of dog money. People love to overreact to a short sample sizes like the first three games of this series and convince themselves that Antonio Senzatela is somehow a -173 favorite against Jake Arrieta. This is where I generally swoop in, pick up all that dog money, and leave with an easy win.
But this game is different. This isn’t the middle of the season, this is the last week of the year, and the Phillies have just given up at this point. This goes to show that this team wasn’t nearly as mentally strong as people may have thought, because when it came down to the stretch race, they folded up and disappeared. And now that they are out of contention, they aren’t even trying.
I could go into the fact that Jake Arrieta has completely fallen apart recently. How he has a 6.98 ERA in the month of September and that he has allowed at least four runs in six of his last eight starts. How the Phillies have lost seven out of his last nine games. But all of that really doesn’t matter at this point. This is a defeated team that has quit playing for the season a week early.
The Rockies have been playing inspired baseball, and I just don’t see any way they let up on Philly tonight. They have been absolutely hammering this Philly pitching staff all week long, and I see no reason to believe that won’t continue today. And when you look at Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela, he has actually been pitching very well recently. He has allowed one run or fewer in five out of his last nine starts.
In all my years of baseball betting, my head says don’t believe the hype, take the Phillies. But my eyes tell me this team has given up and that I expect them to get pounded again tonight. Once again, we will get a huge premium for taking the home run line bet and can get it at nearly even money right now at -105.
And that is what we will do. It wouldn’t at all shock me to see another double-digit outburst by the Rockies and the Phillies to keep swinging and missing. The Phillies have averaged over ten strikeouts per game in this series, and I see that continuing tonight as their hearts just aren’t in it. Give me the Colorado Rockies laying a run and a half on the run line today in the series finale at home at -105!