Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins – MLB Pick 9-10-20

Yesterday we saw fireworks all over the Major League Baseball scoreboard, as runs were easy to come by nearly everywhere. The Rangers, Mets, and Yankees all hung seven runs on the board in wins. The White Sox scored eight against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. The San Francisco Giants beat up the Seattle Mariners for ten runs. But the headliners yesterday were the Milwaukee Brewers and the Atlanta Braves.

The Brewers set the tone for the high scoring day early on with a 10 AM PST start time game that saw them torch the Detroit Tigers for nineteen runs. The Brewers had six different players that had multiple RBI on the day, led by Luis Urias, who knocked in five. Normally when you score nineteen runs in a game, you are going to be the talk of the baseball world, at least for the day. And the Brewers were, for a couple of hours at least, until the Atlanta Braves took the field.

The Braves set the modern-day National League record yesterday with an absurd 29-runs! Atlanta scored eleven in the second inning alone and poured it on all evening, as they scored multiple runs in every inning the rest of the game. Adam Duvall had one of the best games in Major League Baseball history as he clubbed three home runs and drove in nine runs.

Duvall’s huge nigh overshadowed big days from Freddie Freeman and Ronald Acuna Jr, who both homered and drove in a combined eleven runs between the two of them. The Marlins scored nine runs of their own, but still got blown out. If you had Miami +19.5, you just missed the cover! For today’s free daily betting pick, we will follow the Marlins, as they look to lick their wounds after last night’s beating, in game one against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies (21-18) at Miami Marlins (19-19)

The Miami Marlins host the Philadelphia Phillies tonight in game one of a jumbo seven-game series. Only a game and a half separate these two teams for second place in the National League East Division, and whichever team manages to win this series will likely end up taking second place in the division and the playoff spot that goes with it. Despite last night’s embarrassment, the Marlins took two out of three games against the Atlanta Braves in their last series and are 4-4 in the month of September.

For Philadelphia, the Phillies split a doubleheader with the Boston Red Sox in their last series, but have been playing quality baseball lately, as they are 6-3 in September. The Phillies finished August by winning six out of their last seven games and have used this hot streak to pull within two games of the Atlanta Braves for first place in the NL East Division.

Starting tonight in game one for Philly is Jake Arietta (3-4 5.67 ERA), and for the Marlins, it is Sandy Alcantara (2-1 3.78 ERA). The game total over/under is set at nine runs. The Phillies are small -110 road favorites. First pitch is scheduled for 3:40 PM PST from Marlins Park in Miami.

Spread:

  • Miami Marlins +1.5 (-177)
  • Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+148)
Money Line:

  • Miami Marlins (-105)
  • Philadelphia Phillies (-110)
  • Total Runs:

    • Over 9 (+100)
    • Under 9 (-120)

    Philadelphia Phillies

    Well, it’s officially go time for the Philadelphia Phillies. Philly revamped their bullpen at the trade deadline, bringing in several veteran relievers, and if they are going to make the postseason, they must win this series against the Marlins. The Phillies have been able to hammer the baseball all season long, and their starting rotation has several guys that are ace level, with Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler both pitching well.

    But the bullpen has been a major question mark for the Phillies this year, and they did the right thing by making several moves to bolster the staff. But those guys just aren’t pitching well at this point. Brandon Workman has been serviceable, but David Phelps has gotten blasted for five earned runs in just 2.1 innings worked.

    David Hale has allowed three earned runs in four innings, and Heath Hembree has pitched 5.2 innings and has allowed six earned runs. History tells us that these guys are much better than that, and Philly needs to get them pitching well, and right now, if they want to make a push to the playoffs.

    Jake Arietta (3-4 5.67 ERA)

    Another guy that needs to figure things out for Philly right away, is Jake Arrieta. Arietta was a legit ace and a former Cy Young Award winner when he pitched for the Chicago Cubs, but he just hasn’t been able to reproduce those results in his time with Philly. That’s not to say he has been all that bad for Philly, but his lifetime record of 21-23 with a 4.40 ERA pales in comparison to the 68-31 record and 2.73 ERA that he posted in Chicago.

    This year, Arietta has made seven starts and has been very inconsistent. At times he has looked great. Like in his last start where he pitched seven innings against the New York Mets and gave up just two earned runs. Other times, he gets wrecked, like two starts ago, when he gave up seven earned runs in just an inning and a third against the Atlanta Braves.

    Miami Marlins

    There are a lot of people doubting this Miami Marlins team right now, but despite not having too much talent on the roster, they are in the thick of the race in the National League East Division. With a hot finish to the year, not only could they make the playoffs, they could win the division. Coming into the season, you could have gotten the Marlins at +10,000 to win the NL East. To call them a long shot would have been quite the understatement.

    Sandy Alcantara (2-1 3.78 ERA)

    Sandy Alcantara missed a big chunk of the season when he tested positive for COVID-19. He returned to the team last week and has made two starts since joining the squad. In his first start back, he got hammered by the Tampa Bay Rays, allowing eight runs in only four innings of work. But he redeemed himself in his second start, against those very same Rays, when he pitched six innings and allowed just one run, on only three hits.

    Alcantara was All-Star last season despite losing fourteen games and is the centerpiece of this Marlins rebuild on the mound. He has posted a sub-four run ERA in each of the last two seasons but has always struggling with walking too many batters.

    The walks have hurt him again this year, as he has already walked seven batters in his three starts, with multiple walks in each outing. If he can’t find the strike zone tonight, he is going to have a long night, as the Phillies are 4th in the majors in on-base percentage.

    Who Do I Like?

    This series is going to be a major turning point for both teams. If one team can dominate this week in Miami, they will all but lock up a playoff spot, and could jump the Braves for first place while doing so. We have never seen a seven-game series like this before, and if a team can win five or six of these games, it would be huge for their playoff chances.

    I think the Phillies will figure out a way to win this series. I don’t think that the Marlins are going to roll over and die by any means, but the Phillies are playing some good baseball right now as they have gone 12-4 in their last sixteen games. At some point, the Phillie’s bevy of new bullpen arms are going to start to pitch well, and when they do, this team is going to be very hard to beat.

    I see this series against the weak-hitting Marlins as a great time for the Phillies to turn things around on the mound. The Marlins are one of the weakest hitting teams in the game, as they are 26th in home runs and runs scored and 24th in slugging. And even if this turns into a series where all the games are higher scoring, I still expect Philly to find a way to win four or five of these games. That starts tonight in game one.

    The Bet

    I would expect Sandy Alcantara to get roughed up in this one. He has played with fire a lot this season in terms of giving away free passes to first base, and if he does that tonight, he is going to get hammered. Rhys Hoskins is finally starting to heat up for Philly after a slow start to the year and has hit safely in eight out of his last ten games, with four multi-hit games and five total home runs.

    I expect Hoskins and the rest of this Philly lineup to jump all over Alcantara today. The Marlins have to be demoralized after giving up 29-runs last night, and I would expect to see a hangover from last night’s game today. Give me the Philadelphia Phillies as small road favorites in game one against Miami!

    The Bet: Philadelphia Phillies -110

    My Pick
    Philadelphia Phillies
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    Jason Gray / Author

    Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL