Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres MLB Odds and Pick for June 24th

Out on the west coast, a pair of National League playoff hopefuls will go toe-to-toe in America’s Finest City. Both the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres came into 2022 with lofty expectations, but the jury is still out on both teams as viable contenders in a deep NL playoff field.

On Friday night, the two teams will play the second of a four-game set at Petco Park. The Phillies used a strong start from Ranger Suarez and some timely hitting against Joe Musgrove to pick up a 6-2 upset win in Thursday’s series opener.

Friday’s pitching matchup is another good one. Ace Aaron Nola will get the call for the Fightin’ Phils, while rookie lefty MacKenzie Gore will draw the start for the home side.

This game has one of the lowest implied run totals on the entire day. Oddsmakers have this game with an over/under of 7.0 runs, with the Phillies listed as -130 favorites on the road.

Philadelphia Phillies

It’s really been a tale of two seasons for the Phillies. After spending big money to upgrade the offense in free agency, Philadelphia got off to yet another disappointing start. The Phillies were just 22-29 when they made the surprising decision to part ways with manager Joe Girardi back on June 3rd. Many said at the time that Girardi’s dismissal wouldn’t do anything to help turn the team around, but those prognosticators aren’t looking too good right about now.

The Phils will bring a solid 37-34 record into Friday’s clash with the Padres. Since bench coach Rob Thomas took over as Girardi’s interim replacement, the Phillies have reeled off 15 wins in their last 20 games. Philly won each of the first nine games immediately following Girardi’s ouster, as well.

Nola doesn’t seem to generate many headlines, but he’s been one of the most consistent pitchers in the National League for the last handful of years. The LSU product is, essentially, the Phillies’ co-ace next to Zack Wheeler at the top of the rotation. So far this season, Nola is pitching like a legit NL Cy Young contender.

Through 14 starts, Nola is 4-4 with a strong 3.11 ERA. His 2.79 SIERA suggests his ERA should be even lower than it is, as he’s been the victim of some unfortunate home run luck. Nola has been taken deep 10 times already this season, but he’s also allowing a batting average of just .204.
Nola has only allowed seven earned runs in 29 innings so far this month, with five of those runs coming in one particularly rough outing against the Giants. In his last three games, Nola has allowed just two runs in 23 innings of work against the Brewers, Marlins, and Nationals.

His matchup tonight is another good one. The Padres have played well all season long, but they’re still expected to be without All-Star third baseman Manny Machado. Machado, who injured his ankle last weekend after an awkward fall running to first base, currently leads all MLB hitters in fWAR (4.3). Yes, he’s been even better than Aaron Judge.

San Diego Padres

The Dodgers came into the season as heavy betting favorites to get back to the top of the National League West this season. They may ultimately fulfill that prophecy, but they’ll have a fight on their hands again. Last year’s division champs, the Giants, are still only 5.5 games out of first place. The Padres, meanwhile, are the bigger surprise. San Diego is just one game behind the division-leading Dodgers heading into Friday night’s action.

The Pads were a major disappointment a season ago, which led to the firing of manager Jayce Tingler. He was replaced by Bob Melvin, who is widely regarded as one of the game’s best managers. The offseason injury to Fernando Tatis Jr. was expected to derail the Padres’ hopes of bouncing back this season, but they’re still off to a very impressive 44-28 start without the perennial MVP candidate.

Stellar pitching has helped the Padres stay in the thick of the NL West race. MacKenzie Gore, one of the game’s top pitching prospects, has looked the part since making his MLB debut earlier this season. The Padres’ talented lefty is 4-3 through his first 11 major-league starts with a 3.64 ERA.

Gore’s strikeout rate north of 26 percent is outstanding, but he has endured some control issues so far this season. Gore’s walk rate is over 10 percent, which could prove problematic in tonight’s clash with a Phillies lineup that comes into this game with a collective 10 percent walk rate of their own.

The Phillies can pack the lineup with power hitters, so they’re capable of cashing in on scoring opportunities if Gore struggles with his command and puts runners on base.

Houston Astros at New York Yankees MLB Game Pick

Oddsmakers have this one tipped as something close to a toss-up. The Padres are +110 moneyline underdogs at home, while the Phillies are slight -130 favorites.

Please Note:
The Phillies have one of the best records in the league as a betting underdog this season. Philadelphia’s respectable 12-12 record straight-up as an underdog is the fourth-best mark in the league. The Dodgers are 1-0 in their lone game as a ‘dog, while the Yankees (4-1) and Padres (14-10) are the only other teams with winning records in that situation.

Gore has a bright future in front of him, but I’m not a fan of his matchup tonight. This Phillies lineup boasts an isolated slugging percentage of nearly .200 against lefties on the year, and Gore’s problematic control could easily come back to haunt him here.

Nola, meanwhile, should have a fairly easy time mowing down an undermanned version of the Padres here. I like the value in Philadelphia’s -130 moneyline odds in this one. The pitching matchup favors the Phillies, yet the odds probably aren’t as skewed in their favor as they should be.


Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres Betting Recap

  • Moneyline: Phillies -130, Padres +110
  • Runline: Phillies -1.5 (+140), Padres +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under: Over 7 runs (-110), Under 7 runs (-110)
  • Pick: Phillies (-130)


Taylor Smith / Author

Taylor is a sports writer based in Southern California. While he primarily specializes in basketball, baseball and football, he will also dabble in things like soccer and politics from time to time. He has lived in just about every corner of the United States at one point or another, and he has been covering sports and sports betting for the better part of a decade. Taylor currently lives in Long Beach with his fiancé and their two cats.

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