We took a hard-luck loss last night when we backed the Pittsburgh Pirates at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks. I expected a low scoring tight game and that was just what we got. I really liked how Ivan Nova had been pitching recently, coming off the DL, and he really impressed last night. Nova pitched eight innings of shutout ball. Unfortunately for us, he was matched pitch for pitch by Arizona starter Patrick Corbin. Corbin finished his day with seven shutout innings and twelve punch outs.
In the end, this game hit extra innings tied up at zero, and we had a great shot to win the game in the bottom of the eleventh. The Pirates were able to answer the DBacks run in the top of the eleventh and had the game tied at one run apiece with the bases loaded and just one out. But the Pirates could not drive that winning run across. Arizona scored in the top of the thirteenth, and we lost the game.
It certainly feels like we were on the value side of this one getting dog money on Pittsburgh. Anytime you have a coin flip game like this that could go either way, you want to make sure you’re on the value side that is getting odds, not laying them. If you are on the value side consistently, you will be a long-term winner. For today’s game, we will take a look at the game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Washington Nationals.
The Philadelphia Phillies are in the nation’s capital Saturday for game two of a three-game series with the Washington Nationals. The Phillies pounded Washington last night as they beat the Nats, 12-2. Philly was powered by a four-hit day from Odubel Herrera in the win. With the win, the Phillies pulled ahead of Washington for the second wild card, and final playoff spot, in the National League by half of a game.
Starting tonight for the Nationals is Erick Fedde (0-2 5.63 ERA), and for the Phillies, it is Aaron Nola (8-2 2.55 ERA). The Nationals are -111 home favorites. The game total over-under is set at eight and a half runs. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 PM PST from Nationals Park in Washington DC.
I feel like I am a bit of a broken record lately. Every fifth day when Aaron Nola pitches I end up backing him. It just keeps working so well that I can’t stop doing it! I feel like I have this secret that nobody else knows as Nola is continually priced like a middle of the pack starter when he is delivering top of the rotation like results. The Phillies have won nine out of Nola’s last eleven starts.
The guy has an ERA of 2.55 and is a lock to represent the Phillies in the All-Star game this year. Nola struggled through what was his worst outing of the season in his last start against Milwaukee. He was only able to go four and a third innings and gave up four runs. He was the first to admit he didn’t have his best stuff, but in the end, he gutted it out, and the Phillies still found a way to win the game. I guess the way the books see things is that you make fourteen straight stellar starts and struggle a bit in a win and now you are all the sudden an underdog against a rookie pitcher making his fourth career start?
That is where we stand in this one as the Nationals are favored with rookie Erick Fedde on the mound tonight. Fedde is a highly rated prospect and was actually drafted in the same first round as Aaron Nola was a couple of years back. Fedde hasn’t enjoyed nearly the success that Nola has though as he is just now breaking into the Nationals rotation and he hasn’t enjoyed much success since he has been here.
In three starts, Fedde is 0-2 with a 5.63 ERA. To be fair to Fedde, two of those three starts have been against the New York Yankees, the best offensive club in the league this year. So, it is hard to hammer on him too much for struggling against the Bronx Bombers. But to see him as a favorite in this one was downright shocking to me.
This is just a bad number. For some unknown reason, the books and the public haven’t figured out that Aaron Nola is a legit ace at this point. It is tough to bet on the same guy every fifth day like this, but the guy hasn’t been charged with a loss since mid-April. He is pitching at an elite level and is just not being valued properly. And until he is, I am going to keep hammering him.
The Nats bullpen got worked hard and hit hard last night, so they will need a big effort from Fedde today to really have any chance to hang with the Phillies, and I have just not seen anything from this kid that makes me believe that will be the case. I know he is talented, but until he shows me he can win games at a big-league level, I am not ready to see his as a favorite against anybody, let alone a good Phillies team, with a great pitcher like Aaron Nola on the mound. So, I will jump all over Philly in this one and feel like I am certainly the favorite, yet I still get to pick up some dog money! Give me the Philadelphia Phillies as road underdogs at +101!