Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Pick – MLB September 28, 2021

In the biggest series of the year for the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves, they meet at Truist Park for a three-game series. The NL East is likely going to come down to what happens in Atlanta over the next three days.

The Braves are going into Tuesday night with a 2.5-game lead on the Phillies. They can end this thing and win the NL East with a strong effort against the Phillies in this series. It’s been a bumpy road in this division, but everything has shaped up to play out as expected.

I had the Braves and Phillies at the top of the NL East, and we’re in the final week of the regular season with the Braves and Phillies battling for the divisional crown. The Braves have had to overcome injuries and an administration leave for Marcell Ozuna.

Ozuna reportedly agreed to a diversion program for his domestic assault case recently, so that could be thrown out soon. His leave keeps being extended on a weekly basis. It’s going to take some weeks for the charges to be dropped officially, Ozuna could be back for next year.

Ronald Acuna Jr’s injury was the real blow to the Braves. They’ve been able to overcome his injury and figure it out in the second-half, though. The Braves are coming off a three-game sweep of the Padres in San Diego. They’ve also won seven of their last eight games.

The Braves are back home following a long ten-game road trip. They haven’t been at home since a 3-2 loss against the Colorado Rockies on September 15. The Braves have not been their best at Truist Park, so they’ll need that to change this week. Following this series, they close out the season with a three-game title versus the Braves.

Philadelphia is needing a strong series in Atlanta to take over the Braves. They get the perfect opportunity to make up lost ground with a series against Atlanta. The Phillies were on a five-game winning streak before dropping a 6-0 final to the Pirates on Sunday in the four-game finale.

We have what should be a pretty good pitching matchup between Zack Wheeler and Charlie Morton. Wheeler was a Cy Young contender earlier in the year, but he hit a cold streak. He’s responded since then, though. Head below for our free Phillies vs. Braves pick on September 28, 2021.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-190) +110 Over 7.5 (-112)
Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+165) -120 Under 7.5 (-108)
Team Data Philadelphia Phillies Atlanta Braves
Overall Record 81-75 83-72
Away/Home Record 34-41 37-37
Batting Average .238 .240
Batting Average Away/Home .236 .245
Runs Per 9 4.73 5.06
Team ERA 4.40 3.96
Team ERA Away/Home 4.69 4.20

Phillies vs. Braves Prediction:

The Phillies are putting the right guy on the mound to open this series. If they want to win on Tuesday night, then Zack Wheeler is going to give them the best chance of doing that. Wheeler was cold for a few starts, but has been pulling his weight recently.

He is going into Truist Park with an ERA of 2.79 and a 1.02 WHIP, so it’s been a great season for Wheeler despite regressing in August. He is on pace to finish with a career-high this season. Wheeler has done himself some favors since September 6.

In four straight starts, Wheeler has allowed no or 1 earned run. He’s posted an ERA of 1.53 and a 1.02 WHIP in his previous three attempts across 19.1 innings of work. In his most recent start, Wheeler held the Orioles to 4 hits and 1 earned run in a 4-3 win.

The Phillies have won five straight games with Wheeler on the bump. In 171 at-bats versus Wheeler, the Braves are hitting .198 with a .241 OBP. This is who the Phillies want on the bump for this one.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 7-3
  • 5-1 overall in their previous six games
  • 4-2 overall in their previous six games versus the Braves
  • 7-1 overall in their previous eight games verus a right-handed starter
  • 19-7 overall in their previous 26 games versus the NL East
  • Zack Wheeler ERA (Last 3): 1.53


  • Record (Last 10): 7-3
  • 7-1 overall in their previous eight games
  • 6-2 in their previous eight games after a day off
  • 15-5 overall in their previous 15 first game of a series
  • UNDER is 4-2 in their previous six games versus the Phillies
  • Charlie Morton ERA (Last 3): 3.53

Charlie Morton has been solid with an ERA of 3.53 and a 1.07 WHIP this season. However, he hasn’t been at his best at Truist Park in Atlanta. Morton has posted an ERA of 4.00 and a 1.11 WHIP in 89.1 innings as opposed to a 3.06 ERA and 1.03 WHIP on the road.

In his previous three attempts, Morton posted a 4.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through 18 innings of work. The Phillies have been decent versus Morton in his career. This roster is hitting .253 with 22 RBIs against him in 165 at-bats. Morton is coming off a 6-4 loss against the Arizona Diamondbacks on September 23.

As mentioned earlier, the Braves aren’t the best at home in Atlanta. They are only .500 on the season. Wheeler has bounced back and is in Cy Young form once again. At plus money, it’s hard not to like the Phillies in this big showdown at Truist Park.


Phillies vs. Braves Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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