Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Pick – MLB July 15, 2022

The Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins play the first of three games at LoanDepot Park tonight. Philadelphia had the day off on Thursday following an 8-2 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. They were swept at the Rogers Centre for their fourth straight loss.

Philadelphia had something going on a three-game winning streak, including the first two games of a four-game series at Busch Stadium. However, they dropped the next two and then swept in Toronto.

This is the Phillies in a nutshell in the Bryce Harper era. They can look good at times and then give it all back in a hurry. It all adds up to a mediocre record of 46-43.

Philadelphia has a nine-game deficit behind the New York Mets for the lead in the NL East. The Mets continue to lead, with the Braves cutting into that lead over the last month. It looks like another year of the Phillies chasing the wildcard late into the summer.

I don’t have the most confidence in the Phillies doing that much, though.

Why should we have confidence in an underperforming Phillies team? They are on the same roadmap as they’ve been down the last few years. At least the Marlins have a good-looking future ahead of them.

The Marlins are going into this series at 43-45 following a 3-2 win in 11 innings over the Pirates on Thursday. Braxton Garrett was a gem on the mound, with 2 hits allowed across 6 innings of work.

Ace Sandy Alcantara has the call in the series opener at LoanDepot Park tonight. Veteran Kyle Gibson is scheduled on the hill for the Phillies. Head below for our free Phillies vs. Marlins prediction on July 15, 2022.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Live Betting Odds:

MLB Odds Courtesy of Bovada:
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-170) +139 Over 7 (-110)
Miami Marlins -1.5 (+145) -165 Under 7 (-110)
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Team Data Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins
Overall Record 46-43 43-45
Away/Home Record 22-22 22-19
Batting Average .242 .237
Batting Average Away/Home .238 .248
Runs Per 9 4.74 4.25
Team ERA 3.82 3.72
Team ERA Away/Home 4.20 3.39

Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction:

The Marlins haven’t been a good team in over a decade, but they have been good at developing young pitchers. Sandy Alcantara is another big arm they’ve churned out in their organization, and importantly, locked him down with a five-year deal in 2021.

Alcantara is having a Cy Young campaign, as he enters tonight with an ERA of 1.73 and a 0.91 WHIP.

Across six years of service in the major leagues, Alcantara has posted a 3.12 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He’s well on pace for a career-high ERA after notching a career-high ERA of 3.19 last season. I won’t include the seven-start 3.00 ERA in 2020.

Alcantara is going into Friday night on fire with an ERA of 0.75 and a 0.75 WHIP in his last three starts. He hasn’t allowed a run since three starts ago on June 23 against the Cardinals. Alcantara followed up by blanking the Angels and Mets through 15 innings.

He’s sharpest at home, where Alcantara owns an ERA of 1.59 and a 0.79 WHIP through 68 innings. He’s allowed just 12 earned runs in nine outings at LoanDepot Park.

In his current form, Alcantara likely works a strong game on Friday night.

Alcantra takes on a cold Phillies offense in this one. Philadelphia is hitting .201 with 2 runs per 9 innings in their previous five outings, and .220 in their last ten with 3.52 runs. The Marlins have been cooler, though, with just 2.53 runs per 9 innings and a .197 average in ten games.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 5-5
  • 0-4 overall in their previous four games on the road
  • 1-5 overall in their previous six games after conceding 5 or more runs
  • UNDER is 7-1 in their previous eight games
  • UNDER is 10-1 in their previous 11 games after conceding 5 or more runs
  • UNDER is 5-1 in their previous six games on the road


  • Record (Last 10): 4-6
  • 1-7 overall in their previous eight games after conceding 2 or fewer runs
  • 8-21 overall in their previous 29 games on a Friday
  • UNDER is 5-1-2 in their previous eight games at home
  • UNDER is 4-1 in their previous five games versus a right-handed starter
  • UNDER is 4-1-1 in their previous five games after a win

  • Edge to Alcantara over the Phillies’ bats. However, Kyle Gibson should be fine enough to keep the Phillies around tonight.

    Gibson is coming off a strong showing, with 2 hits and no runs allowed against the Cardinals in a 1-0 win.

    He doesn’t have the toughest Miami offense to deal with tonight, so Gibson should be in fine form. The Marlins are 20th with 4.27 runs per 9 innings, as they look to catch up to the pitching staff.

    They are going into tonight with a .190 team average and just 2.45 runs scored per 9 in their previous five attempts. In their last ten, they’ve netted 2.52 runs per 9 frames.

    Alcantara can likely dictate the pace on this one on the mound. Expect him to put the Marlins in a good position to win, but run support may be a problem again. I will roll with UNDER in Miami tonight.


    Phillies vs. Marlins Pick
    UNDER 7
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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