Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets MLB Pick – September 4, 2020

Probable Starters:

    Jake Arrieta (2-4, 6.49 ERA) vs. Rick Porcello (1-4, 6.00 ERA)

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets clash at Citi Field over the weekend for four games. The Mets are coming off a big 9-7 win in a Subway Series game against the Yankees. They erased a 7-4 deficit to get a 9-7 victory over their intercity rivals. The game went to extra innings, with Pete Alonso sending everybody home with a 2-run blast in the 10th.

The bad losses continue to pile up for the Yankees. Overcoming their injuries is proving to be a difficult task. When Aaron Judge was stripped away from the starting lineup, life was sucked out of the team.

This might be a different kind of season with only 60 games on the schedule, but what hasn’t changed is the Yankees getting injured. They’re a tough team to beat when healthy, though that’s been their greatest enemy. The Yankees have no idea when Judge is going to be healthy enough to return as well.

The Rays are loving that news. The Mets’ win on Thursday had nothing to do with the Yankees’ offense being banged up, though. It was due to bad pitching by the Yankees’ pitching staff. J.A. Happ had yet another lowly start and has mostly struggled in 2020.

Amed Rosario had the biggest day for the Mets, as he connected on 3-for-4 hitting to bring home three runners. The Mets are in a six-game hole behind the Atlanta Braves for the lead in the NL East. Not too much is going to change in that regard, though I give them a better than an average chance of catching the Marlins to finish third in the division.

The Mets haven’t gotten much out of Rick Porcello on the hill this season. He was an offseason signing that is doing absolutely nothing for the Mets in 2020. He’s a long way off from Cy Young Porcello from 2016 with the Red Sox. Porcello was pitching much better in 2018 as well, but the last two years have been tough.

Porcello gets the nod tonight, while fellow vet, Jake Arrieta, who has been in the same boat, counters for the Phillies. Head below for our free Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets pick for September 4, 2020.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets MLB Betting Odds:


  • Phillies +1.5 (-170)
  • Mets -1.5 (+150)

  • Phillies (+114)
  • Mets (-124)

  • Over 9.5 (-120)
  • Under 9.5 (+100)


Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Prediction:

Jake Arrieta and Rick Porcello have to feel like they’re looking in a mirror when seeing one another. Both are veterans that have seen plenty of better days in the past. Rick Porcello saw a sudden drop in production in 2019. That’s not to say Porcello was special in 2017 and 2018 either.

After being awarded the 2016 American League Cy Young, Porcello watched his numbers drop off a cliff. He has failed to have an ERA below the 4.00 mark since then. Porcello has posted an ERA of 4.65, 4.28, and 5.52 in the last three years.

The 2019 campaign was the first time that Porcello had an ERA above 5.00 in his career, which dates back to 2009 with the Tigers in Detroit. Porcello spent the first six years of his career as a Tiger. Since finding plenty of success in 2014 with the Tigers, he parlayed that into a deal with the Red Sox, where he won the Cy Young in 2016.

Fast forward to the 2020 campaign, and Porcello has really been struggling to locate a rhythm on the hill. Porcello heads into Friday with a 6.00 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Teams are hitting .321 against Porcello through 33 innings. The power numbers have been good for the Phillies against Porcello, with 8 deep balls and 16 runs scored in 142 at-bats.

The Phillies edged out the Nationals for a 6-5 win yesterday at Citizens Bank Stadium. Philadelphia has been hot with wins in nine of ten games. They are hoping for the best from Arrieta, but like Porcello, he’s been struggling to develop a groove. Arrieta heads into Friday with an ERA of 6.00 and 1.56 WHIP through six games and 26.1 innings.

He’s coming off a dreadful performance versus the Braves, as Arrieta was tagged for 6 hits and 7 earned runs in 1.1 innings. The Mets have tallied 25 runs against Arrieta in 194 at-bats. That’s far too many runs. We should see double digits on the scoreboard, hence a look at the OVER appears to be worth it on Friday at Citi Field.


The Bet
OVER 9.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.