Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Pick – Major League Baseball April 30, 2022

The New York Mets hit play tonight fresh off of Major League Baseball’s first no-hitter of the season last night, as 5 Mets pitchers combined to shut down the Philadelphia Phillies in game 1 of their 3-game series. The Mets will look to stay hot tonight, as they host the Phillies in game 2 of this 3-game series, looking to lock up the series win against their division rivals. New York will bring their Major League-best 15-6 record to the ballpark with them tonight as they try to knock off the Phillies on back-to-back nights.

For Philadelphia, the Phillies will look to get back on track after yesterday’s frustrating night in the Big Apple. Philly had won 4 in a row before dropping the series opener against New York, and going back to last week, they had won 6 of their previous 8 games.

But beating up on the Rockies, 5 of those 6 wins came against Colorado, is not the same as trying to beat the Mets, who appear to be legit NL pennant contenders right now. If the Phillies want to contend in the NL East Division, these are the types of games they are going to have to find a way to win.

The Mets opened up at (-125) but after the early action has come in on Philly, the Mets are now small (-115) home field favorites. The game total is sitting at 7.5 runs with a starting pitching matchup between a couple of veteran hurlers in the Phillies Kyle Gibson and the Mets Taijuan Walker. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 PM PST from Citi Field in New York City.

Philadelphia Phillies (10-11)

It has been a turbulent start to the season for the Phillies as they came out of the gates slow, as they suffered through a stretch that saw them lose 8 of 10 games in early April. But before getting blanked last night by the Mets, they were seemingly starting to turn things around with a 6-2 record in their previous 8 games, to get their record back to .500 on the season.

Philadelphia has been solid at the plate this year, but their pitching staff has made it hard to win games, as they have been mostly terrible. Cy Young candidate Zack Wheeler has not pitched well, and former ace, Aaron Nola, has been serviceable, but nowhere near his normal level of excellence.

The lack of production from their rotation has led to a lot of innings for their bullpen, and that has been a recipe for disaster for the Phillies, as they are 25th in the majors in bullpen ERA. The Phillies need a strong outing tonight from Kyle Gibson to give their bullpen a rest, as they just aren’t going to be able to slow down the hard-hitting Mets lineup if Gibson can’t get them at least 5-6 innings of quality work.

Kyle Gibson

Kyle Gibson has been around forever, and he has whittled out a role as a strong number 3 guy in his long career pitching in the show. With the exception of 1 really strong season for the Texas Rangers in 2021, that was good enough to get him a big free-agent deal with the Phillies last year, Gibson is a guy that is going to eat up some innings, and post an ERA of right around 5 runs, in the middle of your rotation.

His results this year have been mostly good as he is 2-1 with a 3.47 ERA, but when you see the teams that he has pitched against, it is hard to know if these results can be trusted or not. Gibson has made starts against Oakland, Miami, and Colorado (twice) this season, with none of those teams being very good at the dish. Only the San Diego Padres are scoring more runs per game in the National League right now than the Mets, and this will easily be the biggest test of the season thus far for Gibson tonight against New York.

Today’s Starting Pitching Matchup

Kyle Gibson

  • (2-1)
  • 3.47 ERA
  • 8.9 K/9 Ratio
  • 0.986 WHIP
Taijuan Walker

  • (0-0)
  • 0.00 ERA
  • 18.0 K/9 Ratio
  • 0.00 WHIP

New York Mets (15-6)

I know it is early in the season, but a wise man once said, you are what your record is, and if that is indeed the case, that means that the New York Mets are the best team in Major League Baseball right now. The crazy part about all of this early-season success for New York, is that they have been able to win at an elite level despite playing without some of their best players.

Multi-time Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom has yet to throw a pitch this season and fellow starter Taijuan Walker, who will start tonight, has pitched just 2 innings this year after hitting the IL back on April 11th. Most teams would crumble with 2 of their best starters not pitching, but that just hasn’t been the case so far for New York, as the Mets team ERA of 2.79 is 2nd in the majors, trailing only the LA Dodgers.

We all expected the New York pitching staff to be elite, but what has been the most surprising about the Mets this year has been their bats. Jeff McNeil is tearing the cover off of the ball, slashing .344 on the year. Mark Canha is hitting well above his career batting average of .246 as he is hitting .333. And while slugger Pete Alonso isn’t hitting for an eye-popping average, his 17 RBI are tied for 2nd in the NL, 2 behind the Rockies C.J. Cron.

Taijuan Walker

If Taijuan Walker could ever stay healthy, he could be one of the better starters in the National League. He has undeniably good stuff, he just can’t stay on the field long enough to make a real impact. Last year was the first time that Walker pitched a full season since 2017 and after going under the knife in the offseason to fix his bum knee, many felt that Walker could be a big part of the Mets rotation this season pitching behind Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom.

Walker certainly looked sharp in his first start of the year, as he pitched 2 perfect innings against these very same Phillies, striking out 4 without allowing a baserunner. Walker was pulled from that game with shoulder issues and was promptly sent to the IL, where he has sat ever since. The Mets had Walker throw 64 pitches in a simulated game before reactivating him from the injured list and he appears to be ready to get the Mets at least 5 innings tonight in what will be just his 2nd start of the season.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Betting Odds And Team Statistics

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Money line Total Run Line
Philadelphia Phillies (+105) Over 7.5 (-110) +1.5 (-195)
New York Mets (-115) Under 7.5 (-110) -1.5 (+170)
Team Data Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets
Overall Record 10-11 15-6
Home Record 8-5 6-2
Away Record 2-6 9-4
Runs Per Game 4.57 4.61
Runs Against Per Game 4.08 2.79
Hits Per Game 8.40 8.70
K’s Per Game 8.45 7.45

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction:

Last year, the Philadelphia Phillies were awful away from home. Despite being 13 games over .500 in Philly, the Phillies just couldn’t win consistently enough on the road to make the postseason.

This year, we are seeing a similar scenario play out, as the Phillies have a winning record at home, but they have been really bad in other teams’ ballparks, with a 2-6 record. New York hasn’t gotten to play many games at Citi Field this year, as this is just their 2nd homestand of the season, but they have been tough to beat in NYC, with a 6-2 record.

These teams have already played 4 times this season, and the Mets have dominated the season series with a 3-1 record. We all know about last night’s no-hitter, but that wasn’t the only time that the Phillies couldn’t get anything going against this stellar Mets pitching staff, as New York shut them out 2-0 earlier this season as well.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Betting Trends:

Philadelphia Phillies
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games.
  • Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
  • Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against NY Mets.
  • Philadelphia is 2-8 SU in their last 10 games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia’s last 10 games when playing on the road against NY Mets.
New York Mets
  • NY Mets are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of NY Mets’ last 11 games against Philadelphia.
  • NY Mets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of NY Mets’ last 10 games when playing at home against Philadelphia.
  • NY Mets are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games against an opponent in the National League.

The only game that the Phillies have won against the Mets here in the early goings came in that game where Taijuan Walker got the start but lasted only 2 innings. It is always a tough task when you unexpectedly lose your starter after just 2 innings, and with Walker seemingly healthy now, I expect to see him throw 80 or so pitches, which should get him into the 5th inning if the Phillies look as lost at the plate tonight, as they did last night.

The public likes the Phillies, and I would guess that is based on Kyle Gibson having success in his 4 starts? But we already talked about how slowing down the Rockies, Marlins, and Athletics, all teams that are projected to miss the postseason, doesn’t impress me very much.

I can’t remember the last time that the Mets were this good, playing with this much swagger, but with wins in 12 of their last 16 games, including 3 straight against the Phillies, I love them tonight at home. The NL East was one of the most home team-dominated divisions in all of baseball last season, as only the last place Nationals had a losing home record and only the 1st place Braves had a winning record on the road.

Any time that I can get a home team playing as well as the Mets are right now, at basically even money, I am going to take them pretty much every time. The fact that I get a discount with the public moving the number towards Philly is only the cherry on top. Give me the red-hot New York Mets tonight as small home favorites as they hand the Phillies yet another loss.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Pick
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Jason Gray / Author

Jason is a true Las Vegas insider as he has called the sports betting capital of the world his home for sixteen years. Jason started out his career in gaming by running the biggest poker tournaments in the world and managing some of the biggest sportsbooks on the strip. Jason has transitioned out of casino operations and has been covering sports betting for the sports geek for just over two years. His main focus is on baseball, college basketball, and the NFL

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