Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Betting Pick – July 29

A key all-Pennsylvania divisional showdown will unfold Friday evening as the Phillies and Pirates enter what promises to be a crucial series, with bragging rights firmly on the line. Though depleted and somewhat banged-up, Philadelphia remains in the hunt for the playoff race and firmly in contention for a coveted NL Wild-Card spot. This is a group that can hit well, and has been playing much better baseball since the firing of former manager Joe Girardi.

The Pirates on the other hand, are a young team and are merely content to play out the remainder of the season, with an eye firmly on the future. Rookie phenom O’Neil Cruz has come in and ignited this once pedestrian offense, and though the Pirates have lost four straight, you better believe they’ll be eager to spoil the post-season chances of their in-state rivals.

Pittsburgh lost last night’s series opener in nail-biting fashion, but Friday’s pitching matchup should work slightly in their favor. Veteran left-hander Jose Quintana will take the bump for Pittsburgh, and he’s emerged as the unquestionable ace of this staff. It’s also quite likely that this will be his last start in a Pirates jersey, as he has drawn all kinds of interest with the trade deadline fast approaching early next week.

Opposing the veteran Quintana will be relative unknown in Bailey Falter. He’s also a left-handed pitcher, and the Pirates have had some success vs. lefties in recent outings. Falter has frankly faltered in recent outings, entering Friday night’s start with an 0-2 record across multiple starts, a 4.26 ERA, and a 1.50 WHIP. He’s battled with control issues, and the speed and power of Pittsburgh could pose some problems for a Phils squad badly needing more victories.

Though these teams are definitely trending in opposite directions as we close in on Tuesday’s trade deadline, there is still some solid value that we’ve isolated for Friday’s all-Pennsylvania divisional showdown. For added insight, the latest news, trends, and analysis, continue reading on beneath the posted odds for our breakdown and betting prediction for the second game of this entertaining Pirates/Phillies series. Enjoy the game, folks!

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Live Odds & Betting History

Betting odds provided by BOVADA

  • Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+140)
  • Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (-160)
  • Philadelphia Phillies (-125)
  • Pittsburgh Pirates (+105)
  • Over 8.5 (-110)
  • Under 8.5 (-110)
Overall Record 52-47 40-59
Over/Under/Push 51-43-5 41-52-6
Home/Away Record 26-22 21-26
Runs Per Game 4.7 3.6
Runs Allowed Per Game 4.2 5.1
Team Batting Average .243 .229
Bullpen ERA 3.85 4.68

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction:

Look for the key to this game to be the continued improvement and consistency that veteran pitcher Jose Quintana has provided the Pittsburgh Pirates. After all, there’s a reason teams are highly seeking his services this coming trade deadline. After some down seasons, Quintana has bounced back in a big way here in 2022, and enters with some real confidence. His ERA is just 3.70, and only boasts a 1.28 WHIP. He has been missing bats and doing well to mix his pitches, while always staying in complete control. Quintana is by no means an overpowering flame-thrower, but should do well to keep a solid Philly offense at bay. Quintana has dominated left-handed batters this season, good news when it comes to stifling hot-hitting Kyle Schwarber on Friday night.

As a result, runs could be hard to manufacture for the Phillies. And while the Philly attack should be able to get some contact off of the veteran, Quintana has been stellar all season at limiting barrel rates and suppressing hard contact.

Looking at Pittsburgh’s offense, for a team so dreadful their offense has actually been exciting and keeping their fans engaged throughout a dismal 2022. Bailey Falter isn’t going to trouble Pittsburgh’s exciting blend of power and contact at the dish, and his 6.18 FIP isn’t intimidating any of the Pirates’ youth. FanGraphs lists Falter’s ‘stuff’ as within the bottom 5% in all of his baseball, and his pitching mix is simply uninspiring. Currently his slider is being hit to a tune of a .407 batting average, and look for Pittsburgh to hold off and get ready to hammer this approach.

Phillies vs. Pirates Trends To Know:

  • Phillies are 2-8 in their last 10 during game 2 of a series.
  • Phillies are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. National League Central.
  • Phillies are 3-7 in their last 10 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Over is 3-0-1 in Phillies last 4 overall.
  • Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter.

While the Phillies enter Friday night as favorites, it’s more of an indicator on the perceived stakes, opposed to the teams’ collective abilities.  Philly simply needs this game much more, while the Pirates enter relatively stress-free, with an emphasis on the future.  Still, Pittsburgh continues to battle, and Quintana will be keen on leaving Pittsburgh on a good note.  He’s revived his career here, and look for the team behind him to want to send him out with a strong final outing.  Falter meanwhile isn’t a major league quality pitcher, suggesting the Phillies need to be in the market for a capable starter of their own next week.  Look for the Pirates’ bats to be all over him in the early innings, en route to a home underdog victory to even this all-Pennsylvania series at one game apiece.

Our Pick
Will S. / Author

Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist, focusing on detailed reports for major international competitions, including the World Cup and European Championships. Since then, he has produced weekly pick articles on both the NFL and English Premier League, while also contributing blog posts on the NHL, MLB, and even WWE wrestling. Will is also an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, always eager to share his thoughts and insight on anything going on in the world of sports.

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