Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pick – MLB July 28, 2022

The Philadelphia Phillies and Pittsburgh Pirates headline a four-game series at PNC Park tonight. The Pirates are on the heels of getting swept against the Chicago Cubs. They’ve lost three in a row and have losses in four of their last five games.

Losing was expected for the Pirates this season. This isn’t new to the Pirates. I’d say they are playing around expectations at 40-58 on the season. Given their pre-season projections, the Pirates haven’t been bad or great.

IMPROVING FROM 2021
The main goal for the Bucs this season was to show better form than last year. Pittsburgh finished 61-101 and 34 games removed from the lead in 2021. This season, the Pirates are 40-58 and not last in the NL Central.

It isn’t much, but they’ve looked good at times this season. It hasn’t been as of late, though. The Pirates have lost eight of their previous ten attempts going into this one.

The Phillies need a good series against the Bucs after losing four of their previous six games.

That being said, they did what they had to do against the Braves at home. Philadelphia looked good with two wins in three outings. They are coming off a 7-2 win in Atlanta yesterday.

Kyle Gibson turned on a strong performance, as he looked better than Charlie Morton. Morton was tagged for 6 hits and 4 earned runs across 5 innings of work.

The Phillies need some help down the stretch, though. They’re 51-47 and need to get hot soon. Winning the NL East is out of reach, but a wildcard is still possible.

Head below for our free Phillies vs. Pirates pick on July 28, 2022.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Live Betting Odds:

MLB Odds Courtesy of Bovada:
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-115) -190 Over 7.5 (-115)
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (-105) +156 Under 7.5 (-105)
Team Data Philadelphia Phillies Pittsburgh Pirates
Overall Record 51-47 40-58
Away/Home Record 25-22 21-25
Batting Average .245 .220
Batting Average Away/Home .240 .221
Runs Per 9 4.70 3.63
Team ERA 3.80 4.63
Team ERA Away/Home 3.95 4.72

Phillies vs. Pirates Prediction:

The pitching staff will have to improve before the Pirates begin to see results. Things should fall into place thereafter, but there aren’t going to be free agents lining up that want to pitch in Pittsburgh.

The Pirates are 27th with a .262 average against and 5.18 runs allowed per 9 innings.

As a team, the Pirates own a 3.63 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, which gets worse at PNC Park. Zach Thompson has pretty well matched those numbers this season.

REGRESSING FOLLOWING PROMISING ROOKIE CAMPAIGN
Thompson showed flashes of something promising as a rookie last season. He posted an ERA of 3.24 and a 1.21 WHIP in 26 appearances.

Thompson has looked good at times, but needs to find consistency to bring his game to the next level. He’s posted an ERA of 4.64 and a 1.44 WHIP in 2022.

Thompson was getting away with putting too many runners on base earlier in the season.

However, it has been catching up to him, as his numbers dip in the wrong direction. In his previous three starts, Thompson has posted an ERA of 5.40 and a 1.62 WHIP.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends:

Phillies

  • Record (Last 10): 5-5
  • 6-0 overall in their previous six games on a Thursday
  • 11-4 overall in their previous 15 first game of a series
  • 15-5 overall in their previous 20 games after scoring 5 or more runs
  • 8-3 overall in their previous 11 games on the road versus a team with a losing record
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five games after scoring 2 or fewer runs

Pirates

  • Record (Last 10): 2-8
  • 1-4 overall in their previous five games versus the NL East
  • 1-6 overall in their previous seven games versus a right-handed starter
  • 5-16 overall in their previous 21 games after a day off
  • 6-14 overall in their previous 20 games on a Thursday
  • 2-5 overall in their previous seven games after scoring 2 or fewer runs

  • This is a tough assignment for the Pirates with Zack Wheeler on the bump at PNC Park. Wheeler is the ace of the club, with an ERA of 2.78 and a 1.04 WHIP across 1.08 WHIP.

    He didn’t have his best performance of the year two races back vs the Jays, but bounced back nicely.

    Wheeler conceded 3 hits and 1 earned run in a 6-2 win against the Cubs. Wheeler exited the game in good shape after 7 innings of work at Citizens Bank Park.

    He’s allowed 1 or fewer earned runs in three of his previous four starts. The start at the Rogers Centre was an outlier for Wheeler.

    Wheeler has been in good form against the Bucs, as he’s held this roster to a .196 batting average. This should be a good spot for him on Thursday night at Yankee Stadium. I like the Phillies in a 6-3 or 5-2 final at PNC Park.

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    Phillies vs. Pirates Pick
    PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -1.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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