Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Pick – MLB June 25, 2022

The Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres clash in the third matchup of a four-game series at Petco Park.

The Padres blanked the Phillies in a 1-0 shutout on Friday night. All they needed was the arm of MacKenzie Gore and the bullpen.

Gore conceded 3 hits and no earned runs across 5 innings of work. Three relievers combined to hold the Phillies to 2 hits across 4 innings. To get the season opened on Thursday, Joe Musgrove had a rare poor showing.

Musgrove was roughed up for 7 hits and 6 earned runs in 6 innings. He’s been on point this season, but that is a performance for him to forget about quickly.

The rookie picked Musgrove up last night, as Gore pitched a gem to spearhead a win in a pitcher’s duel at Petco. With the win, the Padres are going into tonight at 45-28 and a game behind the Dodgers.

It’s all Padres and Dodgers in the NL West, as the Giants are sputtering and dropped to 6.5 games back.

San Diego is right in the mix for the division following a tough showing last night. They failed to play up to expectations and finished at 79-83 and 28 games behind the Giants.

The Padres have been without the services of Fernando Tatis Jr. He recently started to swing a bat again, but isn’t nearing a return in the immediate future. Manny Machado left a game last week with an ankle injury, though this doesn’t look like a long-term problem.

Blake Snell is penciled in for a start at home tonight. Snell has made six starts after a late arrival this season.

He is looking for better. Zach Eflin is expected to counter for the Phillies.

Head below for our free Phillies vs. Padres pick on June 25, 2022.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Live Betting Odds:

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:
Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-185) +108 Over 7.5 (-115)
San Diego Padres -1.5 (+160) -130 Under 7.5 (-105)
Team Data Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres
Overall Record 37-35 45-28
Away/Home Record 18-18 21-14
Batting Average .243 .241
Batting Average Away/Home .242 .227
Runs Per 9 4.78 4.69
Team ERA 3.88 3.41
Team ERA Away/Home 4.28 3.06

Phillies vs. Padres Prediction:

The Padres acquired Blake Snell after he posted an ERA of 3.24 in the shortened season. Snell had just 11 starts, though it was only 2018 when Snell powered forward with a 1.89 ERA and a Cy Young.

In his initial season with the Padres, Snell was only fine with a 4.20 ERA and 1.32 WHIP across 27 games. It isn’t fine considering how much the Padres are paying Snell, though. That’s especially true this season for Snell.

Snell is going into tonight with an ERA of 5.46 and a 1.45 WHIP.

That’s not what the Padres are looking for out of a pitcher making $50 million in five years. In six starts, Snell has allowed a minimum of 3 earned runs.

He’s entering his Saturday night assignment with a 6.14 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in his previous three starts. Snell has allowed 18 hits and 12 runs in 16.1 innings of play.

The Phillies haven’t been bad against Snell, with a .243 batting average and 7 RBIs in 50 at-bats. Rhys Hoskins and Bryce Harper both have a long ball against Snell.

Zach Eflin hasn’t produced his best work recently, too.

Eflin is looking to get on track after running into issues as of late. He’s looking to bounce back from a couple of poor starts against the Marlins and Nationals.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 6-4
  • 7-1 overall in their previous eight games after a win
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five games versus the NL West
  • OVER is 5-0 in their previous five Zach Eflin starts
  • OVER is 7-1 in their previous eight third game of a series
  • OVER is 7-2 in their previous nine games versus a team with a winning record


  • Record (Last 10): 6-4
  • 7-1 overall in their previous eight games versus a right-handed starter
  • 6-2 overall in their previous eight games versus a team with a winning record
  • OVER is 4-1 in their previous five third game of a series
  • OVER is 5-1 in their previous six games after their opponent scores 2 or fewer runs
  • OVER is 10-3 in their previous 13 games after a win

  • Eflin is going into tonight with an ERA of 4.43 and a 1.19 WHIP. His worst work has been in recent performances.

    Elfin has conceded 10 hits and 8 earned runs in his previous 8 innings.

    He lasted just 2 innings in his last time on the hill, as the Nats chased Eflin out of the game quickly. As a result, Eflin posted an ERA of 6.75 and a 1.42 WHIP in his last three starts.

    He’s liked pitching at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, though can’t pull the trigger on the road. Eflin has been roughed up with a 7.96 ERA and 1.77 WHIP in 26 frames on the road.

    The total looks a shade too low from what I’m anticipating at Petco Park tonight. We probably see at least 8 runs in this one. I’m looking at a 6-3 or 6-4 final, so the OVER is worth considering.


    Phillies vs. Padres Pick
    OVER 7.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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