Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals Pick – MLB July 11, 2022

The Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals close a four-game series at Busch Stadium on Monday night. Most teams will be opening a new series or have the day off on Monday. The Phillies can win the series, or the Cardinals can take a split.

The Phillies opened the series with back-to-back wins, 2-0 and 1-0 behind strong performances from Zack Wheeler and Kyle Gibson. Wheeler allowed 5 hits and no runs, while Gibson was even better with 2 hits yielded across 7 innings.

CARDINALS RESPOND ON SUNDAY
Nick Nelson went 2 innings with 3 hits, 4 walks, and 1 earned run allowed. He didn’t have any command on the hill, but it could have been much worse. Nelson handed the Cardinals scoring opportunities. St. Louis didn’t do anything particularly special offensively on Sunday.

The Cardinals relied on their bullpen to complete the comeback yesterday afternoon. Starter Andre Pallante was spotty on the mound, as he conceded 9 hits and 3 earned runs across 5.2 innings. The bullpen came up big with just 2 hits and no runs allowed. Albert Pujols sent one deep for his fifth long ball of the year to cut into the lead.

The Brewers dropped a 8-6 game to the Bucs last night, so the Cards get closer by a game in the NL Central.

St. Louis hasn’t been great at 46-42, but the Brewers aren’t doing anything to pull away. It’s unlikely that any team gets away with a comfortable lead near the end of the regular season in the NL Central.

The Phillies are attempting to play a role in the NL East, as the Atlanta Braves continue to creep up on the New York Mets. The Mets have been leading from the opening series this season, but the Braves are coming on hard lately.

Third-place belongs to the Phillies at 46-40 and seven games behind the Mets. They’re within striking distance, but this feels like an every-year scenario for the Phillies. Close but not enough.

I’m not going to write the Phillies off yet, but with the Braves in good form and the Mets having Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom in the rotation, it’s an uphill battle. Long-time Phillie, Aaron Noal, is due up against Miles Mikolas on Monday.

Head below for our free Phillies vs. Cardinals prediction on July 11, 2022.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals Live Betting Odds:

MLB Odds Courtesy of Bovada:
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+150) -115 Over 7.5 (-110)
St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 (-175) -105 Under 7.5 (-110)
Team Data Philadelphia Phillies St. Louis Cardinals
Overall Record 46-40 46-42
Away/Home Record 22-19 25-18
Batting Average .245 .246
Batting Average Away/Home .242 .248
Runs Per 9 4.83 4.55
Team ERA 3.73 3.77
Team ERA Away/Home 4.03 3.42

Phillies vs. Cardinals Prediction:

The Phillies ask Aaron Nola to put them back into the winner’s circle on Monday. Nola is one of the most consistent hurlers in their rotation since entering the majors in 2015. He has a career ERA of 3.62 and a 1.14 WHIP.

Nola hasn’t diverted too far from his career average.

The veteran is going into Monday evening with an ERA of 3.15 and a 0.93 WHIP across 112 innings of play. In his previous three starts, Nola has notched a 3.32 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through 23.1 innings.

SUCCESS ON THE ROAD
Pitching at Citizens Bank Park hasn’t been a favorite of Nola this season. He has registered an ERA of 4.15 through 57 innings. The home run ball has bothered him, with 9 home runs in Philly.

However, that hasn’t been as much of a problem for him on the road. Nola has yielded 3 home runs in 55 frames on the road, with a 2.13 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.

Nola hasn’t given up a home run to the Cardinals in 64 at-bats.

Other than the long ball at home, Nola has been in good shape this season. The Cards are 16th in the majors, with 1.07 home runs per game.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals Betting Trends:

Phillies

  • Record (Last 10): 7-3
  • 7-2 overall in their previous nine games versus the NL Central
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five games on the road
  • UNDER is 5-1 in their previous six games on the road
  • UNDER is 8-2 in their previous ten games after a loss
  • UNDER is 5-1 in their previous six games versus a team with a winning record

Cardinals

  • Record (Last 10): 3-7
  • 1-5 overall in their previous six games after a win
  • 2-6 overall in their previous eight games versus a team with a winning record
  • UNDER is 7-0 in their previous nine games versus a right-handed starter
  • UNDER is 5-0 in their previous five games at home
  • UNDER is 11-1 in their previous 12 games versus the NL East

  • Miles Mikolas should keep the Cardinals in this game regardless of what Nola accomplishes. Mikolas is pitching like it’s 2018 this season.

    He posted a career-high ERA of 2.83 in the 2018 campaign.

    Mikolas is in similar form, with an ERA of 2.72 and a 0.99 WHIP. He was a strike away from completing a no-hitter. After failing to finish the no-hitter, he didn’t get down on himself and continued to pitch well.

    Mikolas hasn’t allowed more than 3 earned runs in a performance since June 3 at Wrigley Field. That can be a tough place to pitch if the wind isn’t cooperating for pitchers. He’s allowed 2 or fewer runs in five of six outings since then.

    The UNDER is 13-0 combined between the Phillies and Cardinals’ previous 13 games. In their last four meetings, there has been an average of just 3.5 runs scored per game. The UNDER on the total is 5-1 in their previous six matchups. Nola and Mikolas should carry the workload at Busch Stadium tonight.

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    Phillies vs. Cardinals Pick
    UNDER 7.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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