Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays MLB Betting Pick – July 12

The Toronto Blue Jays will look to get back on track as they return home for an inter-league battle with the Philadelphia Phillies. The Jays have lost nine of their past ten games, and return to the Rogers Centre fresh off an embarrassing sweep by the hard-charging Seattle Mariners.

Toronto’s lead in the wild-card race for the American League has dried up considerably, and this talented lineup is at a severe risk of having their season totally unravel. Their bats have gone quiet, and pitching injuries have really cut into their innings from starters, and the ability from a banged-up bullpen. Returning home needs to get this fading Jays team back on track, before it’s too late.

Entering Toronto will be the surging Philadelphia Phillies, who have fared exceptionally well since replacing their manager earlier in the season in Joe Girardi. Philly enters with a 46-41 record on the season, firmly holding onto an NL wild-card spot. For this two-game set, they’ll be without some key pieces though, both due to injury and questionable vaccination statuses. That could hurt the Phils in what is a crucial two-game set for both teams.

PITCHING PROBABLES: Phillies: Andrew Bellatti (1-3, 3.14 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 41 strikeouts); Blue Jays: Jose Berrios (6-4, 5.44 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 73 strikeouts)

Though the Jays haven’t lost the season series vs. Philly since 2011, even with the Phils’ absences, it’s tough to favour this Toronto squad for anything right now. They’ll kick things off with Jose Berrios taking to the mound, and the high-priced veteran righty has struggled all season long. He’s been erratic with his set-up on the mound, and has also struggled with control. While manager Charlie Montoyo hasn’t confirmed Berrios will go for sure, as there’s also a chance Kevin Gausman starts off an injury – the thinking here is that Toronto will go with Berrios, and give Gausman the start tomorrow, coincidentally on his own bobblehead day.

Philly will counter with Andrew Bellatti, who has been decent in his starts this season. The veteran righty has been used as an opener for the Phillies before, and that’ll likely be the case vs. the Jays on Tuesday. He’s fared exceptionally well in July, and enters the Rogers Centre without conceding a run over his past starts. Against a scary, but cold top of the lineup in Toronto – the Jays could get off to yet another frustrating start on Tuesday.

With the Jays fading fast, a win is desperately needed from Jose Berrios and his team come Tuesday evening. As front offices finalize trade deadline plans, a big series for either Toronto or Philadelphia could go a long way in settling playoff positioning. Though these teams don’t play all that often, it should be a great mini-series, with lots of offense! For added insight, the latest news, trends, and analysis, continue reading on beneath the posted odds for our breakdown and betting prediction for the opening game of this thrilling Jays/Phillies series. Enjoy the game, folks!

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Live Odds & Betting History

Betting odds provided by BOVADA

Spread:
  • Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-110)
  • Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-110)
Moneyline:
  • Philadelphia Phillies (+165)
  • Toronto Blue Jays (-190)
Total:
  • Over 9.5 (-110)
  • Under 9.5 (-110)
TEAM DATA PHILLIES BLUE JAYS
Overall Record 46-41 45-42
Over/Under/Push 45-39-3 47-38-2
Home/Away Record 22-20 25-18
Runs Per Game 4.7 4.6
Runs Allowed Per Game 4.1 4.5
Team Batting Average .247 .257
Bullpen ERA 3.73 4.29

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction:

Despite the fact that the Phillies enter Toronto having lost two straight games, and are without some pretty key pieces – look for them to get back on track vs. a massively flawed Toronto team.

Regardless of who takes the mound in a likely Philadelphia bullpen game, this Jays’ offense has gone ice-cold, and is especially struggling in any sort of high-leverage spot. In their last series vs. Seattle, they left runners stranded in scoring position with regularity, and couldn’t even manage to get a crucial run home on Saturday night with the bases loaded, and no outs. Their lineup is very right-handed heavy, and opposing managers have been able to stymie their offense in recent series.

For Toronto, while their pitching is depleted, the guys stepping up onto the mound haven’t been doing a good enough job of getting outs in their absence. That’s not good news as they prepare to take on one of the best lineups in baseball, featuring one of the game’s hottest hitters in Kyle Schwarber. He has 10 homers in his past 18 games, and the powerful masher should be geared up for a hitter’s park in Toronto.

The Jays will likely turn to Jose Berrios to get the key early outs against Schwarber and his hot-hitting teammates. It hasn’t been a pleasant season for the veteran thrower, who has struggled with control and struggled as well with hard-hit rates. He gets barreled quite a bit, and against a powerful hitting Phillies’ squad, that seems like it’s a recipe for disaster. Beyond Berrios, don’t expect much help either from a sliding Jays’ bullpen, offering very little relief. Toronto poses few power pitchers, and their bullpens have consistently cost them games over this prolonged swoon.

Even with some absences, this Philadelphia offense isn’t anything to scoff at. They enter with many top-five marks in all of baseball, registering 4.76 runs per game, and an impressive .740 team OPS. The tandem of Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins is enough to pose threats for this futile Jays’ pitching staff, both of whom enter Toronto with personal .OPS marks above .825.

Phillies vs. Blue Jays Trends To Know:

  • Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
  • Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
  • Phillies are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
  • Philadelphia are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games against an opponent in the American League.
  • Toronto are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games.

With the Jays slumping with both their pitching and hitting, it’s hard to see any big changes to their results without either managerial or lineup shifts.  As those don’t appear to be happening, Toronto can further expect more mediocrity.  Look for the Jays’ offense to struggle against the Philly bullpen, and don’t anticipate Jose Berrios, or Toronto’s relievers being able to bail them out.  This remains one of the more overrated sides in baseball, and look for the Phillies to take advantage at a juiced underdog price on Tuesday night.

Our Pick
Phillies
Will S. / Author

Will has been working with The Sports Geek since its early days back in 2010. He began as a soccer specialist, focusing on detailed reports for major international competitions, including the World Cup and European Championships. Since then, he has produced weekly pick articles on both the NFL and English Premier League, while also contributing blog posts on the NHL, MLB, and even WWE wrestling. Will is also an avid sports bettor and daily fantasy player, always eager to share his thoughts and insight on anything going on in the world of sports.

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