We have a relatively short slate of MLB action on Thursday with 11 games scattered throughout the day. Some teams will finish series that have been going on all week, while others will be starting new weekend sets.
We’ve got the makings of a good pitching matchup in this one. Aaron Nola will take the ball for the Phils, while the much-improved Kyle Wright will toe the rubber for the Braves.
Bovada oddsmakers have the Braves listed as slight -115 moneyline favorites to take the final game of the series at home. Philadelphia, meanwhile, comes in at -105 on the moneyline.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have been aggressive over the past few years in a desperate bid to build a winner. Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber are a few of the big names the Phillies have signed to huge free-agent deals over the past three years.
However, the Phillies haven’t made a playoff appearance since 2011. If the season ended today, the Phils would, once again, finish on the outside looking in at the National League postseason picture. Philadelphia is just 20-24 in the early going, good for third in the NL East behind the Mets and Braves.
It’s certainly too early to panic, however. A Wild Card spot is still very much in play, especially now that MLB has adopted an expanded postseason format.
This will be Nola’s first outing of the 2022 campaign against the Braves. He did struggle against Atlanta last year, however, with a 4.45 ERA and a 1-2 record in five starts against the eventual World Series champions.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves’ title defense hasn’t gotten off to a perfect start, but we know this team may be prone to slow starts. Let’s not forget Atlanta didn’t get to above the .500 mark permanently until last August, but we know what they did after that.
So, you can probably understand if manager Brian Snitker is hardly panicking about his team’s 21-23 record so far. Atlanta has fallen to seven games behind the Mets in the division, but there is still more than enough time to make up any necessary ground.
Tonight, the much-improved Kyle Wright will climb the hill. Wright was a big-time prospect, but he’s only just now starting to put it all together at the top level. Wright still owns an unsightly 4.92 career ERA in the majors, but he’s improved that mark all the way to 2.49 so far in ’22.
Wright’s 29.5 percent K-rate is easily a career-high. His walk rate is about half of what it was a season ago. He’s also keeping the ball on the ground at a 50.9 percent clip.
A matchup with a loaded Phillies offense isn’t a particularly favorable one, but Wright’s numbers so far this season show no clear areas of weakness. Things could take a turn for the worse considering we’re only dealing with an eight-game sample, but it’s hard not to be impressed by what Wright has done so far this term.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves MLB Game Pick
The betting odds for this game look about right. Atlanta has been the slightly better team this season, and they’re at home. With a pair of ace-caliber pitchers going head-to-head, this game is a virtual toss-up, per the moneyline.
I still think Nola is the best pitcher in this game. We usually see the team with the better starter favored, but not in this case. Wright may be due for some regression on his current 2.49 ERA, and the Phillies’ offense is certainly equipped to do some damage.
I like the value in the Phillies at -105 on the moneyline to win this one and secure a four-game series split.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Betting Recap
- Moneyline: Phillies -105, Braves -115
- Runline: Phillies -1.5 (+165), Braves +1.5 (-195)
- Over/Under: Over 8 runs (-110), Under 8 runs (-110)
- Pick: Phillies (-105)
