Phillies at Braves MLB Odds and Pick for May 26th

We have a relatively short slate of MLB action on Thursday with 11 games scattered throughout the day. Some teams will finish series that have been going on all week, while others will be starting new weekend sets.

The former will take place tonight in Atlanta, where the Braves will host the Philadelphia Phillies for the finale of a four-game midweek series.
The Phillies took the opener on Monday, but the Braves have bounced back with consecutive wins over the past couple of days. The Phillies will hope to leave Georgia tonight with a four-game split against the reigning NL East champs.

We’ve got the makings of a good pitching matchup in this one. Aaron Nola will take the ball for the Phils, while the much-improved Kyle Wright will toe the rubber for the Braves.
Bovada oddsmakers have the Braves listed as slight -115 moneyline favorites to take the final game of the series at home. Philadelphia, meanwhile, comes in at -105 on the moneyline.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have been aggressive over the past few years in a desperate bid to build a winner. Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber are a few of the big names the Phillies have signed to huge free-agent deals over the past three years.

However, the Phillies haven’t made a playoff appearance since 2011. If the season ended today, the Phils would, once again, finish on the outside looking in at the National League postseason picture. Philadelphia is just 20-24 in the early going, good for third in the NL East behind the Mets and Braves.

It’s certainly too early to panic, however. A Wild Card spot is still very much in play, especially now that MLB has adopted an expanded postseason format.

Nola, the team’s co-ace with Wheeler, is off to a fine start, as well. His 1-4 win-loss record doesn’t do justice to his actual results. Nola’s strikeout rate is sitting at an impressive 30.9 percent, and his 4.8 percent walk rate is easily the best of his career.
Nola has had issues with the long-ball, but positive regression should be on the way. Opposing hitters have already homered nine times against Nola this season, but his HR/FB percentage is sitting at an abnormal 20 percent so far. The league average is right around 9.5 percent.

This will be Nola’s first outing of the 2022 campaign against the Braves. He did struggle against Atlanta last year, however, with a 4.45 ERA and a 1-2 record in five starts against the eventual World Series champions.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves’ title defense hasn’t gotten off to a perfect start, but we know this team may be prone to slow starts. Let’s not forget Atlanta didn’t get to above the .500 mark permanently until last August, but we know what they did after that.

So, you can probably understand if manager Brian Snitker is hardly panicking about his team’s 21-23 record so far. Atlanta has fallen to seven games behind the Mets in the division, but there is still more than enough time to make up any necessary ground.

Tonight, the much-improved Kyle Wright will climb the hill. Wright was a big-time prospect, but he’s only just now starting to put it all together at the top level. Wright still owns an unsightly 4.92 career ERA in the majors, but he’s improved that mark all the way to 2.49 so far in ’22.

Wright’s 29.5 percent K-rate is easily a career-high. His walk rate is about half of what it was a season ago. He’s also keeping the ball on the ground at a 50.9 percent clip.

A matchup with a loaded Phillies offense isn’t a particularly favorable one, but Wright’s numbers so far this season show no clear areas of weakness. Things could take a turn for the worse considering we’re only dealing with an eight-game sample, but it’s hard not to be impressed by what Wright has done so far this term.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves MLB Game Pick

The betting odds for this game look about right. Atlanta has been the slightly better team this season, and they’re at home. With a pair of ace-caliber pitchers going head-to-head, this game is a virtual toss-up, per the moneyline.

Please Note:
Wright has been incredibly good this season, but we don’t have to look too far back to see some significantly worse numbers. His SIERA has been well north of 5.00 in every year of his career. This year, though, it’s down to 3.06

I still think Nola is the best pitcher in this game. We usually see the team with the better starter favored, but not in this case. Wright may be due for some regression on his current 2.49 ERA, and the Phillies’ offense is certainly equipped to do some damage.

I like the value in the Phillies at -105 on the moneyline to win this one and secure a four-game series split.


Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Betting Recap

  • Moneyline: Phillies -105, Braves -115
  • Runline: Phillies -1.5 (+165), Braves +1.5 (-195)
  • Over/Under: Over 8 runs (-110), Under 8 runs (-110)
  • Pick: Phillies (-105)


Taylor Smith / Author

Taylor is a sports writer based in Southern California. While he primarily specializes in basketball, baseball and football, he will also dabble in things like soccer and politics from time to time. He has lived in just about every corner of the United States at one point or another, and he has been covering sports and sports betting for the better part of a decade. Taylor currently lives in Long Beach with his fiancé and their two cats.

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