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Phillies vs. Cardinals Pick MLB – July 25th

A month ago, the mere suggestion of a Dodgers vs. Rays World Series would have been hilarious.  Today, it seems not only reasonable, but like it might just be the best possible match-up (as Cardinal fans scream profanity at my through their monitors…).  The Dodgers continue to never lose, last night in ridiculous two-outs in the ninth error-aided aided fashion to reel off their tenth game in a row away from home.   The last time the Dodgers achieved that feat was 1955.  They begin a series against the red-hot Reds tonight in Los Angeles which should be a fantastic four days of baseball.

While the Reds v Dodgers kicks off today, many other series are winding down for get-away day (i.e. many games before 2pm EST today, so check lines early for afternoon wagering possibilities), including the Red Sox and Rays.  The winner of today’s game leaves with the lead in the AL Central.

We’ve talked about the hottest teams in baseball.  Now let’s take a look at the BEST team in baseball for tonight’s free pick.

Philadelphia Phillies +166 at St. Louis Cardinals -176 (Total: 7.5)

Kyle Kendrick vs. Lance Lynn

The Cardinals just continue to roll along, cruising to the best record in baseball and amassing ridiculous stats in the process.  They have hit over .320 with runners in scoring position in every month of the season and easily lead all of MLB in that important category.  This month they are a staggering .376.  It’s going to be a real challenge for Kendrick tonight to keep the Cards under control, as there are no real easy outs in the lineup aside from the pitcher – they are getting great production out of the 6th-8th spots in the order, which is rare for NL lineups.

Meanwhile, Philly is trying to avoid a disastrous four-game sweep with Kyle Kendrick on the mound.  Making things a little more challenging for the is the absence of All-Star Dominic Brown tonight.  Four game sweeps are rare in MLB, even against lousy teams, which Philly is not.  They aren’t great, but they ain’t the Astros either…

Here’s the deal-breaker stat for me; Lance Lynn has a 6.34 ERA over his last eight starts.  That’s really high, but the juggernaut offense of the Cards has covered up some of his deficiencies.  I like both teams to score some runs tonight; the Phills because they are due and Lance Lynn has been dreadful, and the Cardinals because it is simply what they DO.  Anytime I see a run total UNDER 8 without an All-Star pitcher on the mound in a Cardinals game, my eyes light up.

I’ll take the OVER 7.5 tonight.

Free Pick:  Run TOTAL OVER 7.5