We split yesterday’s pick, with the Diamondbacks and Nationals struggling to score runs as predicted, but the Nationals squeezed out a narrow 3-2 win to thwart Paul Goldschmidt’s homerun and Arizona’s upset bid.
Today is another light load across Major League Baseball, with only nine games on the docket, but it could be quite a fun afternoon for offense-lovers and fantasy baseball fans. Six of the nine games have run totals of 8.5 or greater, and two of them have run lines set at a whopping 10. So, will today have the run-scoring fireworks it seems? Let’s dig inside a few matchups today and try to get on the right side.
Today’s Free Picks:
New York Mets +152 at Colorado Rockies -165 (Total: 10)
Jeremy Hefner (2-6, 3.89 ERA) vs. Tyler Chatwood (4-1, 2.22 ERA)
Granted, the ball flies out of Coors Field and the Rockies offense has a ton of pop behind it, but a ten run total is a huge line and one you don’t see every day. It also feels a little surprising considering the solid pitching that Tyler Chatwood has delivered so far this season in his limited action.
Today’s game is a makeup game from an April snow-out, and it is a much needed return to home for the Rockies who went 2-7 on their recent road trip. Meanwhile, New York has experienced a little enthusiasm lately with the young pitching tandem of Wheeler and Harvey, but their offense is still a tad inept. They are hitting just .230 as a team and averaging less than four runs a game. To make things even more challenging, their best hitter, David Wright, is expected to get a day off today for rest.
I don’t see the Mets putting a ton of runs up against Chatwood, and unless the Rockies just go bananas against
Hefner, who has pitched a little better than his record, this game is going to have a tough time getting to eleven runs and pushing the total over. I’m going to take the more conservative route and pick the UNDER.
Free Pick: Run TOTAL UNDER 10
Philadelphia Phillies+172 at Los Angeles Dodgers -180 (Total: 7.5)
Jonathan Pettibone (3-3, 4.14 ERA) vs. Zack Greinke (4-2, 3.79 ERA)
Nearly every game has a large Vegas run total posted… except this one. And I’m not too sure why. Pettibone has been below average all season long, and he faces a hot Dodger lineup led by Yasiel Puig and Zack Greinke hasn’t been nearly as good as his reputation that precedes him.
This game feels like one destined to go over the run total and possibly even early.
I like the Dodgers to win, but at -180, there isn’t a ton of value. I’m not sure I trust Greinke quite enough to make the -1.5 run total my official play, but I do like this game heading over the run total.
Free Pick: Run TOTAL OVER 7.5