Phillies vs. Giants MLB Pick – June 3rd

Well last night was an example of a very tough way to lose a pick. I had the UNDER 7.5 between the Diamondbacks and Marlins from Arizona, and the pick was winning with two outs to go in the ninth inning. At that point, the Marlins’ Lewis Brinson hit a solo shot to make the score 6-2, and pushed the total OVER in the process.

Zack Greinke continued his home domination with 6.2 frames of one run ball, but his counterpart Caleb Smith had his worst outing in some time. Smith yielded five runs, including two home runs, in just four innings of work and took the loss in the process.

Let’s move on from that tough-luck loss and move out to San Francisco where the Giants will host the Phillies after the home side has taken the first two games of the three-game set.

Philadelphia Phillies @ San Francisco Giants

Jake Arrieta (2.16 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 1.15 WHIP) vs. Dereck Rodriguez (Triple-A: 3.40 ERA, 5.40 FIP, 1.19 WHIP)

It’s the veteran Arrieta against the rookie Rodriguez tonight as the Phillies look to avoid the sweet and keep pace with the Braves and Nationals in the NL East.

Arrieta has been excellent in his new digs in Philadelphia. While he’s been unbelieveable at home with a sub-1 ERA at Citizens Bank Park, Arrieta has been very good on the road as well, save for an April 30th start at Miami where he yielded six earned runs. Arrieta has yielded two runs or less in each of his other four road starts on the season and is coming off seven shutout frames at the Dodgers in his last start. That actually marks back-to-back scoreless outings for the veteran right-hander while three of his last four outings have been of the shutout variety. In fact, that April 3oth start at Miami is the only time Arrieta has allowed more than two runs in a start this season.

In seven career starts against the Giants, Arrieta is 5-2 with a 1.96 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP to go along with a 4.30 strikeout-to-walk ratio, his second-best figure against any team in the MLB.

In five career starts at AT&T Park in San Francisco, he is 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP to go along with a 5.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio, again his second-best mark among all major league clubs.

The Phillies’ offense has been shutout in back-to-back games in this series, however they should be able to get the bats going against the rookie right-hander Rodriguez.

Rodriguez, the son of Hall of Famer Pudge Rodriguez, has made just one appearance for the Giants this season since being called up from Triple-A, and it wasn’t pretty. Rodriguez yielded four runs, one earned, on five hits and a walk in just 3.1 innings of work. He had that solid 3.40 ERA at the Triple-A level this season, however his FIP of 5.40 suggests he’s very fortunate to be sporting that solid ERA mark. Rodriguez had a lot of trouble with the long ball in the minors, yielding a 1.97 HR/9 while yielding plenty of fly-balls with a 45% fly-ball rate this season.

While we’ll need the Phillies bats to come around against the rookie, a lot of this pick has to do with the dominance of Arrieta. He’s been extremely consistent this year and has allowed just two earned runs over his last four starts combined. I am looking for the veteran to salvage a win for this club in this series and snap the Giants’ three-game win streak in the process.

The Bet: Phillies -1.5 (-128)


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