Phillies vs. Marlins MLB Pick – August 23rd

The Philadelphia Phillies had the day off on Thursday following a successful trip to Boston. They were winners in two of two games, with wins of 3-2 and 5-2 over the Red Sox. That’s a big series for the Phillies, as they didn’t miss a beat against the Red Sox at Fenway. The Red Sox have just about had it in 2019 and might be close to throwing in the towel.

They continue to slip with the regular season getting closer and closer, while others are rising up and seizing the opportunity. It hasn’t felt really at all this season that the Red Sox have been in-sync fully. Expecting them to go on a run at this point is asking a lot.

The Phillies added to their frustration, as the Red Sox sank to 68-61 on the season. Meanwhile, Philadelphia advanced to 66-60, which is nothing to get exited about, the Phillies are playing in the National League and the Red Sox aren’t. 68-61 doesn’t get much in the American League these days.

The Red Sox are 7 games back with that record, while the Phillies are 2 games back in the National League. The problem with the Phillies is that they’ve been way too hot and cold. You think they’re this contender one week who will be able to run through the competition in the postseason, and in another week the team looks lost without a clue what to do.

That goes back to Bryce Harper, who can either be on fire or a strikeout machine. The one thing that seems to get his bat hot is when he gets booed. Harper was booed in Boston and immediately followed it up with a 2-run long ball. Harper and the Phillies must stay focused in Miami against the lowly Marlins. They’ll send out Vince Velasquez to take on Hector Noesi on Friday. Head below for our free Phillies vs. Marlins pick.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Phillies -180/Marlins +155
  • O/U: 9

Pitching Matchup:

  • Vince Velasquez (5-7, 4.35 ERA)
  • Hector Noesi (0-3, 9.39 ERA)

Betting odds provided by bovada.lv

If all goes according to plan for the Phillies on Friday, the offense should be able to put on a show against Hector Noesi at Marlins Park in this one. Make no mistake, Noesi is not pitching in the Marlins’ rotation because he is a good pitcher. In fact, the Marlins have him in there because he’s a cheap arm to fill the rotation with. They don’t necessarily want somebody good in there pitching on an expensive contract, not in a rebuilding year.

Noesi made his first appearance in the majors since 2015 on August 6th. Nothing was going his way in 2015 when he finished with an ERA of 6.89 with the White Sox. Since entering the majors in 2011, Noesi has failed to finish one year with his ERA below 4.00. So, the Marlins were not expecting this to go well for them by starting Noesi.

He’s made three starts and has allowed at least 5 earned runs in all for an ERA of 9.39 and 0-3 record. Noesi also carries a 1.50 WHIP and .343 OBA going into Friday. He has not been able to limit the deep ball, having already given up 6 in 15.1 innings.

The Marlins only hope in keeping up in this game is going to come from their offense. They’ve scored 13 runs against Velasquez in 124 at-bats. Velasquez has been average this season with an ERA of 4.34 on the season. He posted a 4.15 ERA in his previous three outings, with 3 runs yielded in contests against the Padres and Giants.

Velasquez has been slightly less effective on the road, with a 4.42 ERA, but he’s pretty well been consistently average throughout the season. With the total at 9 and even money, I think this leads to a pretty decent situation where a play on the OVER is warranted. The OVER has gone 21-8-2 in the last 31 home games for the Marlins and there should be another Friday night with the Phillies in town.

The Bet
OVER 9
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.