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Phillies vs. Marlins Pick – MLB September 23rd

A big win for the Philadelphia Phillies last night. Okay, not really, it wasn’t big at all. But the Phillies were able to snap a six game losing streak last night as fairly big underdogs. I liked the Phillies, not sure why I didn’t pull the trigger. I thought it was a coin-flip game, and the Phillies were getting +156 I believe. Ah well, moving on to today. We have a David Buchanan alert in this game. I repeat, a David Buchanan alert. I believe Buchanan is one of, if not the worst starting pitchers in baseball. I gave you a few picks fading him in the last two months and they all hit. I need to look into this game some more, but backing Buchanan has to be a scary proposition. The Phillies are way out of the postseason race, as they’ve been from the first game of the season basically. At the time, the Phillies looked like they weren’t even going to win 30 games on the year. They ultimately got it together, somewhat, but the fact of the matter is the Phillies are just 57-94. However, that is still much better than that original prediction for the Phillies.

It wasn’t that much of a surprise that the Phillies haven’t been a good team this season. We expected it. In the case of the Marlins, there was an expectations with them. They were looking good, better than we thought they’d be a year ago, before Giancarlo Stanton had to exit after taking a fastball straight to his face. That is the kind of luck the Marlins have had. So, the thought process here was, okay, Stanton will come back and the Marlins should be able to improve on what they generated a year ago. Problem being, Stanton has been their offense, and he hasn’t been playing like a monster. A .265 batting average and 27 HRs is not bad at all, most players would be happy with that kind of output. But a guy getting paid as much as he is there is more expected from him. The Marlins do get, essentially what is a T to hit off against Buchanan. If there is no offense against him, I simply say there wasn’t enough effort on behalf of the offense. Look for my pick below.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins

David Buchanan (2-9, 8.49 ERA) vs. Adam Conley (4-1, 4.22)

The thing about Buchanan is that he just isn’t having a bad start here and there, it’s consistently bad. There isn’t anything wrong in his delivery, in the sense, of being able to fix it in the minors. He just simply isn’t good enough to play at this level. His fastball tops out at 89, on average I see his ball at about 88. That will work at the college level, but not in the majors. Hitters have taken advantage of his poor work, posting a 8.49 ERA against Buchanan. Just when you think he couldn’t get worse, he had a 13.91 ERA in his last three starts, including a 3.00 WHIP and .540 OBA. In other words, he basically loaded the bases on average in his last three outings. He is also worse off on the road than at home, with an ERA of 11.22 and 2.40 WHIP.

Adam Conley, a rookie, has dominated Buchanan if we are comparing statistics. And Conley hasn’t even been that good. He has been okay, but no one is jumping up and down for his 4.22 ERA. For teams that are on the outside looking in, this is primarily a time in the season where it’s time to give young pitchers some experience, and an opportunity for the organization to get a good look at him. The Marlins should win this game, taking into consideration they have Buchanan on deck. But at -160 it is too steep for me to take. If you want to, go for it. Instead I will take a look at the OVER in a game where I predict some offense to be produced.

PICK: OVER 8.5 RUNS (+105)