Phillies vs. Reds MLB Pick – September 4th

The Philadelphia Phillies stayed on the right track in Cincinnati last night, as Vince Velasquez was solid on the bump and the offense were effective in a 6-2 win. They’ll look to make it three in a row over the Reds and a four-game winning streak Wednesday in Cincinnati. If this is the beginning of a hot run by the Phillies, it’s be the perfect time to get going with September upon us now.

The Phillies have no other choice if they want to play baseball in October. They’re the first team out in the National League at the moment. The Cubs are the last team in and would be playing the Nationals if the Wild Card Game were today. Philadelphia are going to need the Cubs to regress this month. Regardless of their effort, they can’t trade wins with the Cubs down the stretch.

Philadelphia should have considered getting going earlier if they didn’t want to be in this position, though. They have talent on their roster that should at least have them with a wildcard going into the final month. A wildcard with a chance to overtake the Braves would have been a more respectable spot for the Phils right now. Expectations come with a $330-million dollar contract.

The NL East is out of reach with a 12.5-game deficit in the division. Barring a collapse by the Braves, which they’ve shown no indications of doing, they will cruise ahead of the Nationals to a divisional championship again. The Phillies just have to worry about themselves and not look at the standings. A win today and they’re suddenly on a four-game winning streak. Aaron Nola will be sent out against Trevor Bauer of the Reds in this one. Head below for our free Phillies vs. Reds pick.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Phillies -127/Reds +107
  • O/U: 8.5

Pitching Matchup:

  • Aaron Nola (12-4, 3.45 ERA)
  • Trevor Bauer (10-12, 4.53 ERA)

Betting odds provided by

The transition from the Indians to the Reds has not been a pleasant one for Trevor Bauer. Bauer may be happy to be out of Cleveland, but he is not doing his job effectively as a member of the Reds. He’s made a couple of nice starts, but that’s only two out of six with the Reds thus far.

He heads into Wednesday with an ERA of 8.40 and 1.70 WHIP in 30 innings with the Reds. That’s a fall off from a 3.79 ERA with the Indians. In his previous three outings, Bauer has posted a 9.64 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. He takes on a Phillies squad who are hitting .263 with 9 runs scored in 80 at-bats against him.

Production against Nola for the Reds has been difficult to find. Nola has done a tremendous job against this Cincinnati roster. They are hitting just .171 in 76 at-bats against Nola. He’s been sharp recently, with a 2.66 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in his last three contests. Nola hasn’t allowed more than 3 runs in a start since July 28th against the Braves. In 12 out of his previous 14 outings, Nola has surrendered 3 or less runs.

The Reds have been giving a lackluster effort of late with their season in the dumpster. They have nothing to play for and already have seemed to call it quits. Cincinnati have gone 1-6 in their previous seven games, with losses against the Marlins, Cardinals, and Phillies. Their only win was a win Sunday night as part of a doubleheader.

Having to head home after playing four games in two days in St. Louis has appeared to take a beating on them. There hasn’t been any energy out of the Reds in this series against the Phillies. It’s more than possible that the Phillies notch another win over the Reds for their third W in a row in Cincinnati.

The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.