Phillies vs. Tigers MLB Pick – July 23rd

The Philadelphia Phillies and Detroit Tigers will meet at Comerica Park for a brief two-game interleague series. The Phillies are coming off a solid series against the Pirates over the weekend, winning two of three games in Pittsburgh. This after the Phillies took a split against the top ranked Dodgers. They’ve taken themselves out of the wildcard race, with a 7.5-game deficit against the Braves.

The Nationals are 6.5 back, so Bryce Harper’s ex is doing better off without him, as it stands now. The offense has been fine without him, but the bullpen were slow starters this year. Now that they’ve come around and pitching much better, the Nationals have jumped up in the National League quickly.

The Nationals, Brewers, Phillies, and Cardinals are all within a half game of one another going into Tuesday. Every game is important and might be the difference between going to the postseason and staying home. There is no time for the Phillies to lollygag and go through the motions at this point. If Bryce Harper catches fire down the stretch and leads the Phillies deep into the postseason, all will be forgotten about his previous struggles.

Detroit can forget all about competing this season and the next couple. They’re three or four years off from being a threat in the AL Central. In a perfect world, Casey Mize will be the new Justin Verlander and the Tigers go from the bottom to the top of the American League in three years.

The Tigers are on pace for being as bad as the 2003 Tigers, who finished with a record of 43-119, went to the World Series three years later in 2006. They weren’t stuck with a Miguel Cabrera like contract then, though. Detroit went all-in with the heftiest payroll in baseball, but no championship to show for it.

The biggest contract woe in the 2003 season was overpaying for Bobby Higginson, not anything like the Miggy deal. Aaron Nola, a Cy Young finalist from last season, is scheduled to get the nod against the Tigers on Tuesday. Matt Boyd will counter for the Tigers. Head below for our free Phillies vs. Tigers pick.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit Tigers Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Phillies -145/Tigers +125
  • O/U: 8

Pitching Matchup:

  • Aaron Nola (8-2, 3.77 ERA)
  • Matthew Boyd (6-8, 4.12 ERA)

Betting odds provided by bovada.lv

Matthew Boyd is likely on the market as a trade piece for the Tigers. However, he is tanking at the wrong time with his value decreasing by the start. Boyd still presents an opportunity for teams to improve their depth without having to part with too many assets. He’s still a solid pitcher who can help a club, but don’t expect an ace. Boyd enters Tuesday against the Phillies with an ERA of 4.12 and 1.13 WHIP on the season. He’s slipped with a 6.38 ERA and 1.36 in his previous three tilts.

Boyd has been regressing since a poor start against the Royals on June 13th. He went into that game with a 3.08 ERA and it’s gone north in each outing since. Boyd had a season-high on May 28th with an ERA of 2.85. So, yeah, his value has unfortunately fallen for the Tigers. He was looking at his first season with a sub-4.00 ERA, but he’s going to have to have to fight to get it back under 4.00 down the stretch.

The Phillies are hitting .300 with a .364 OBP in 26 at-bats against Boyd. They’ve been hitting lefties more effectively with a .249 batting average as opposed to a .237 against righties. Nola goes into Tuesday with a 3.06 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in his last three contests. He’s allowed 1 or less runs in five of his last six appearances. The team to get to him for more was the Dodgers in his most recent outing. The Tigers are definitely not the Dodgers, so this should be an easier game for him.

Nola hasn’t been producing Cy Young numbers in 2019, although he’s still been a quality hurler. Just a little too inconsistent, with a few bad outliers that have impacted his numbers negatively. Tigers’ batters are hitting .261 with no home runs against Nola in 46 at-bats. Detroit have recorded just 3 runs on him in that time.

The Phillies can’t afford to play like slop against a bad team like the Tigers. They’re 30-65 for a reason and Philadelphia will get blasted here by their fans and local media if they struggle. The price on the Phillies looks way too low here. A bit suspicious, but it’s nevertheless hard to ignore -145 on the Phillies to beat a minor league squad.

The Bet
PHILLIES
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.