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Phillies vs. Tigers Pick MLB – July 27th

With only one loss on the week, we head into Saturday once again in the positive column. Not looking to stop now, I hope to go a full week with only one loss. Friday night’s win was another that was never in question. Jeff Locke got erratic at times, but managed to hold the lowly Marlins to only 2 runs. Unfortunately for the Pirates, that wasn’t enough to pick up a win, as Henderson Alvarez brought his A game, allowing only 2 hits in 6 innings of work. The Marlins ultimately won the game, 2-0, which easily gave us a winner with the UNDER 7.5. Time to hit Saturday hard!

Free MLB Pick:

Philadelphia Phillies +220 at Detroit Tigers -250 (Total: 7.5)

Raul Valdes (1-0, 7.59 ERA) vs. Max Scherzer (14-1, 3.14 ERA)

Max Scherzer, remember him? After losing his first start of the season against the Rangers two starts ago, Scherzer has been a forgotten man in a sense. Even when he was on that epic tear of 13 straight wins, there was a feeling that he wasn’t getting the respect he deserved. Scherzer did start the All-Star game, but his name seldom comes up in elite pitcher discussions. His ERA could be better, but how can you argue with 14 wins on July 27th. His WHIP indicates that he doesn’t put many on base with a 0.95. Consequently, Scherzer gives up his runs primarily by the deep ball. However, he also gets plenty of runs back from the Tigers’ offense, where they average well over 5 runs a game when he is starting. A big reason for why he is 14-1 on the year.

The Phillies will counter with Raul Valdes. It truly is the game of opposites. On one end of the spectrum you have Scherzer, the starter for the AL in the All-Star game, and then on the other side you have Raul Valdes. So who exactly is Valdes? Well, first off it is important to note that he is not a regular starter. In fact, this will be his first start of 2013. The most innings he has pitched in a game this year has been 3.1. I don’t know if the Tigers, Miguel Cabrera-less or not, are the team you want to get your feet wet against. Even though he hasn’t pitched many innings, he has botched many efforts out of the bullpen. His ERA stands at 7.59, and is even worse on the road with an 8.71.

Valdes has only started two games in his career, once last season and in 2010 with the New York Mets. I am aware that Miguel Cabrera may not start, but this line looks way too juicy for me to pass up on. The Tigers are getting a nice price at -150 (Note: I am writing this article early Saturday morning, so I imagine it has gone up) with Scherzer on the mound vs. Valdes, but I am going to take it a step further and forget about the ML. The Tigers should be able to win by more than a run, so I will bypass taking them straight up and bet the RL.

Free Pick: Detroit Tigers -1.5