Phillies vs. Marlins MLB Pick – October 1, 2021

We’re down to the final three games for each MLB team across the league, and there’s several crucial matchups on tonight’s schedule.

That said, the Phillies were eliminated from postseason contention after last night’s loss in Atlanta and the Marlins have been outside the playoff picture for some time. That said, we’re not in the business in handicapping only the games with postseason implications as we simply want to take value when we see it on the board.

Let’s dive into a Phillies vs. Marlins MLB Pick and see where the money will be made in an NL East matchup from Miami!

Phillies vs. Marlins Betting Odds

Teams Moneyline Spread Total
Phillies -102 -1.5 (+165) Over 7 (+100)
Marlins -108 +1.5 (-190) Under 7 (-120)

Phillies vs. Marlins Starting Pitching Breakdown

Phillies

While the Phillies have received some quality pitching at the top of the rotation from the likes of Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, left-hander Ranger Suarez has been a major addition to a rotation that’s needed length for much of the season.

In fact, Suarez has been absolutely lights out this season, turning in an eye-popping 1.45 ERA across 11 starts and 38 appearances spanning 99 innings of work. Among pitchers that have pitched at least 90 innings this season, only Jacob deGrom’s 1.08 ERA sits ahead of Suarez on that list, so the guy has been fantastic.

As a starter, Suarez owns a 1.69 ERA/2.44 FIP in his 11 starts while he’s managed to keep home runs down to an unworldly 0.15 HR/9 clip, or just one homer allowed in 58.2 innings pitched out of the Phillies’ rotation this season.

The lack of home runs come as little surprise. While his K-rate is solid at 8.91 K/9, Suarez also owns an elite 60.6% ground-ball rate along with a lack of hard contact at 31.1% and hardly any barrels at just 2.7%. To put it in perspective, his hard-hit rate ranks in the league’s 92nd percentile while that barrel rate sits in the league’s 98th.

We’re splittin’ hairs a bit here, but Suarez does sport inferior numbers on the road. His road ERA of 1.35 is actually lower than his 1.51 home mark, but his .612 OPS, .275 wOBA, 3.76 FIP, 3.99 xFIP and 4.59 BB/9 on the road are all worse than the same figures at Citizens Bank in Philly.

Nonetheless, he tossed the best outing of his season his last time out, hurling a complete game shutout while allowing just four hits, no walks and striking out seven. He’s allowed a total of seven earned runs over his last seven starts, posting a 1.43 ERA in that time.

Marlins

The Marlins have one of the very best pitching staffs in baseball anchored by a young rotation that just continues to deliver fantastic results and right-hander Sandy Alcantara has been a big factor in that group.

Alcantara enters this one sporting a 3.09 ERA/3.36 FIP on the season to go along with an 8.75 K/9 and just 2.20 BB/9, the latter of which is by far a career-high for the 26-year-old. Alcantara otherwise sports a 3.43 xERA, 3.42 xFIP and 3.68 ERA on the season.

While the overall work has been quite good, his work at home has been flat-out dominant. Alcantara has pitched to an elite 2.17 ERA this season at loanDepot Park in Miami, also posting a 2.71 FIP, 2.95 xFIP and just 0.63 HR/9 at home as well. The punchouts play up to a 9.39 K/9 at home, the walks drop to just 1.81 BB/9 and the resulting 5.20 K/BB at home is just fantastic.

Alcantara has also held the opposition to just a .195 average, .538 OPS and .235 wOBA at home. Over his last five starts of the season at home, Alcantara has posted a 0.97 ERA and 11.43 K/9 across 37 innings, so the Phillies should also be in extremely tough tonight.

Alcantara has allowed three runs in nine innings to the Phillies this season, but both of those outings came on the road as he takes the hill for his first home start against his NL East foes in this one tonight.

Offense and Bullpen Notes

Phillies

The Phillies have all the pieces to put forth one of the league’s more productive offenses but that group has fallen short once again here in the 2021 season.

Overall, the Phillies are tied for 14th with a .313 wOBA and 13th with a .169 ISO on the season. The work off righties has been quite similar as the Phils sit 16th with a .311 wOBA off righties such as Alcantara this season while their power has been solid with a .170 ISO that checks in at 12th league wide.

There also has’t been a marked difference between their offense at home and on the road. The Phillies are tied for 16th with a .309 wOBA on the road despite the power remaining strong with a .168 ISO. Add it up and it’s been a less-than-inspiring Phillies offense on the road off righties this season as they sit in a share of 20th with a .305 wOBA off righties outside of Citizens Bank Park this season. That figure has slipped to .291 over the last 30 days and 297 trips to the plate, good for 24th in that time.

The Phillies’ bullpen hasn’t exactly helped the club in their postseason push. That group enters this series opener sporting a 25th-ranked 4.66 ERA on the season and their 4.63 FIP pretty much agrees with that figure dead on. Walks and home runs have both been issues for this group as their 4.01 BB/9 ranks 16th, but the home runs have been their foremost issue with a 1.41 HR/9 that ranks 27th league wide.

The work has not been getting much better, either, as they rank 26th with a 5.22 ERA over the last 30 days, so it has’t been a big surprise as to why they’ve been unable to remain in the NL East hunt.

Marlins

The Marlins would be in a far better position right now if their offense could have produced better, although they don’t exactly have many game-breaking pieces in that group.

Overall, the Marlins are tied with the Pirates for 28th and a .292 wOBA on the season and their power has been among the worst in baseball with a .140 ISO that sits 29th. That work actually gets even worse against left-handed pitching as they sit 29th with a .285 wOBA on the season off southpaw pitching.

Not helping their cause is the pitcher-friendly loanDepot Park in Miami. Miami’s .293 wOBA at home this season puts them 29th in baseball while their power output also puts them 29th by way of a .132 ISO. When you put it all together the Marlins actually sport the league’s worst home offense against left-handed pitching by way of a .283 wOBA while their .118 ISO at home is actually the worst mark in the league, by far.

As noted earlier, the Marlins boast one of the game’s best overall pitching staffs, and while the rotation is young and strong, this year’s bullpen has been excellent.

That group has posted a seventh-ranked 3.84 ERA on the season while their 3.80 FIP backs that figure up. Now, the team traded Adam Cimber and Trevor Richards to the Blue Jays at the trade deadline as clear sellers, and the bullpen has suffered some as a result as they have posted an 18th-ranked 4.33 ERA in the seasons’s second half and a 4.02 mark over the last 30 days with an ugly 6.67 ERA over the last week, so that group has been in steady decline for some time.

Betting Trends

  • Under is 4-1 in the Phillies’ last five games
  • Over is 4-1 in the Marlins’ last five games at home
  • Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Miami

Phillies vs. Marlins MLB Pick

To me, it comes as zero surprise we have a seven-run total. Suarez owns a 1.45 and a 1.35 mark on the road, and Alcantara has posted a 2.17 home ERA and a sub-1.00 ERA at home over his last five games at home. Add in the Phillies lack of success on the road off righties and the Marlins extreme lack of success at home against lefties and you get your extremely low total.

That said, I’m not exactly thrilled with these bullpens. This Marlins group in particular is struggling mightily at the moment and the Phillies have simply been one of the worst groups in baseball this season.

To me, I am going to back Alcantara. As poor as this Marlins offense is off lefties at home, Suarez owns FIP/xFIP figures on the road that are well over his surface ERA, nearly three runs to be exact. He’s not going to yield many home runs in this matchup — if any — but he would appear due for road regression.

Seeing the Marlins’ bullpen struggle isn’t ideal, but Alcantara is getting extremely deep into his home starts of late. There’s also the fact that the Phillies are 34-44 on the road compared to 47-34 at home while the Marlins are a solid 40-38 at home compared to an abysmal 25-56 on the road.

Add it up and I’ll back Alcantara to pitch his club to victory this evening on home turf.

The Bet
MARLINS
-108
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Brenton Kemp / Author

Brenton is a lifelong sports fan who resides in Ontario, Canada. Brenton is a fan of most all sports but specializes in hockey, baseball, football, basketball, and golf. He’s a fierce researcher with a strong appetite to deliver accurate and relevant facts that in turn have led to past success with picks and DFS advice across the board. Brenton’s biggest goal is to deliver readers with the picks and advice that can build their bankroll. He takes great pride in his success and loves nothing more than to share that success for the benefit of everyone involved.

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