It’s been a fantastic 2020 MLB season so far in regards to my free MLB picks.
I’m going to start getting more out down the home stretch here, but after concluding last week with a 2-0-1 night, I’m feeling real good about where things stand heading into a fresh week of MLB action.
Season Record: 18-9-1
Now let’s check out this free MLB pick featuring the Phillies vs. Marlins from Marlins Park in Miami!
Phillies vs. Marlins Betting Odds
- Phillies (+109)
- Marlins (-119)
- Phillies +1.5 (-182)
- Marlins -1.5 (+162)
- Over 8.5 (-109)
- Under 8.5 (-111)
Phillies vs. Marlins MLB Pick Breakdown
The Phillies will send right-hander Vince Velasquez to the mound for this one tonight in what marks his fifth start and seventh appearance of the season.
His results to this point have been pretty Velasquez-esque.
He’s once again striking out plenty of hitters, only this time he’s striking out a ton of hitters in the form of a 13.05 K/9 on the season. That said, control and home run issues have once again reared their heads as he owns a 4.95 BB/9 and 1.80 HR/9 on the season. Velasquez is the owner of a career 3.53 BB/9 and 1.44 HR/9 for his career.
Add it up and he carries a 5.85 ERA into this one, but his peripherals do point to some positive regression. While he also owns a 4.86 FIP, his 4.01 xFIP and 3.97 SIERA show some serious positive regression on the horizon while he’s allowed just 34.7% hard contact on the season while his .378 BABIP against should lower towards his 3.15 career mark as we move along.
It’s safe to say young Marlins right-hander Pablo Lopez would like to forget his last two starts.
In that time, he’s been rocked for 12 earned runs across just 5.2 innings of work while allowing nine hits and four walks as well. If you’ll recall, his last start came on the road against the Braves where he was shelled for seven earned runs in just 1.2 innings in what amounted to a 29-run output for the Braves in that one.
While owns a ghastly 20.77 ERA over his last two starts, he’s otherwise been pretty good. He worked to a 2.11 ERA over his first six starts of the season while he’s been far better at home where he has pitched to a 2.79 ERA in three starts. His disastrous last two outings both came on the road where he now owns a 6.10 ERA on the season.
Overall, he owns a 4.50 ERA, but also a tidy 3.16 FIP and 3.50 xFIP while surrendering home runs at just a 0.68 HR/9 clip. He’s also the owner of a 3.94 SIERA and has allowed just 31.4% hard contact on the season.
The Phillies have managed to turn a corner midway through this season and have been one of the better offenses in the game as their on-paper talent is now matching their on-field results.
The Phillies rank sixth with a .339 wOBA on the season. They’ve been a tough out as well as they not only rank ninth with a 10.4% walk rate, but also sit third with a tiny 20.3% K-rate as a team this season.
They’ve been among the best in the league against left-handed pitching and not quite as good against righties, but they still sit tied for 12th with a .324 wOBA on the season against right-handed pitching, although the power dips to 17th with a mediocre .164 ISO on the season off of righties.
A couple of players to keep an eye on here are catcher J.T. Realmuto and first baseman Rhys Hoskins, both of whom are listed as questionable for this one. It’s highly unlikely to go in this one as he’s set for an MRI on an ailing hip while Hoskins is listed as day-to-day after sitting out both of yesterday’s double-header games due to a forearm issue.
Both players are key contributors to this offense, but it sounds like they could very well be without both in this one tonight – a big blow to their offensive outlook.
While the Marlins have exceeded expectations this season, it’s certainly no thanks to their offense.
Against right-handed pitching, the Marlins rank 22nd with a .308 wOBA, but also 24th with a .696 OPS and 29th with a tiny .126 ISO.
Furthermore, the pitcher-friendly confines of Marlins Park in Miami has done them no favors. The Marlins rank 25th with a .299 wOBA at home this season but also dead last with a minuscule .115 ISO at home as well.
The Marlins broke out for eight runs in the second-half of yesterday’s twin-bill and they’ve been pretty potent of late, averaging 5.6 runs per game over their last eight.
It was no secret early on the Phillies had the worst bullpen in baseball, and they still sit last with a 7.27 bullpen ERA.
The club brought on former Red Sox relievers Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree while also swinging a deal with the Yankees for David Hale in an attempt to upgrade the bullpen, but Hembree has struggled mightily while Workman and Hale both sports ERAs north of 4.00.
Their 5.86 FIP and 4.84 xFIP are well below their 7.27 ERA, and while none of those figures are particularly attractive, they do point to at least some improved results in the future.
Home run issues have been at the forefront of the group’s struggles as they own a league-worst 2.15 HR/9 from the ‘pen while their 4.30 BB/9 on the season is nothing to write home about, either.
The Marlins have seen some decent results from their bullpen, but a 29-run drubbing last week was the regression they were in for, although it was excessive to say the least.
The Marlins’ peripherals long indicated some serious regression for a bullpen that had an ERA in the middle of the pack with peripherals at or near the bottom of the league.
At this point, they now sit 25th with a 5.27 ERA from their bullpen, but still sit 28th with a 5.60 FIP, 29th with a 5.46 xFIP and 27th with a -0.7 fWAR from that group.
Additionally, they are fooling no one at the plate by way of their league-worst 7.00 K/9 while their 4.65 BB/9 checks in at 26th.
Needless to say, both of these bullpens leave plenty to be desired.
Phillies vs. Marlins MLB Pick
There’s seemingly many ways to go here.
The Phillies were fairly hot of late before dropping both halves of yesterday’s twin-bill and find themselves in a dog fight with these very Marlins who own a half-game lead over the Phils for second in the NL East entering this one tonight.
Velasquez and the bullpen have struggled, but Velasquez’s peripherals certainly point to improved results moving forward while you would figure a Phillies bullpen can bring that 7.27 ERA down as well.
The Marlins have struggled mightily against right-handers and at home on offense, but they have a pitcher going who owns a career 3.39 ERA in 20 starts at Marlins Park.
It’s probably worth noting that Velasquez owns a 6.10 ERA in this venue across his seven starts here.
I don’t like the fact the Phillies are likely without two of their best offensive players in Hoskins and Realmuto, however, and while Lopez has been roughed up badly of late, I like his chances for a bounce back in this one while the Marlins just haven’t hit at home.
The bullpens make me nervous, but I see a low-scoring affair tonight from Marlins Park despite the struggles of Velasquez in this venue.