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Pirates vs. Reds Pick – MLB April 6th

For some reason I have a hard time believing it is Opening Day in Major League Baseball today. Call it the horrible winter or baseball on Easter, but whatever it is, baseball is back with a full slate of action today. The last time I posted my MLB picks on The Sports Geek, two seasons ago, I hit at a rate of 64% winners. It is all documented on here if you feel so inclined to check up on that and do the math. Last season I regressed percentage wise, but still managed to nab +5.58 units. All of my picks are completely free and available to you most every day at no charge. With that kind of success you often have to pay big bucks for their picks, and in the majority of cases, you don’t get those kinds of results. You will receive either one or two picks a day from me, and of course Chris will be providing his picks as well, who already is off to a solid start with a winning pick last night. My NHL picks will continue to be available at the blog here throughout the playoffs, too.

For todays action, which is one of my favorite days in baseball, features a bevy of matchups that is sure to quench your thirst for baseball. I have missed it and I’m excited for a summer of winning MLB picks. We turn out attention to Cincinnati where Johnny Cueto looks to continue at a torrid pace as a Red. It is important to note that this is a contract year for Cueto. If he has another big season you can guarantee the Brinks truck is going to be backing up in his driveway. In other words, I don’t see him being with the Reds next season. You already know that a team is going to pull out the money bags to attract him. Most likely a big market team. We can assume the usual suspects (Yankees, Red Sox, Angels).

Opposite him on the mound will be Francisco Liriano. He is coming off a hot 2014 and a hot spring training this season. In a day where some pitchers get the nod in the opener due to the name on the back of their jersey, Liriano truly deserves to get things started as a result of what he has accomplished. Let’s look into this one deeper and look to make some opening day money in the MLB.

Remember, betting on the MLB is the biggest grind in sports betting. Make sure to maintain solid bankroll management as we move forward this season. Bad beats will happen and bad runs are inevitable (unless it is another year like 2013 where the worst streak I went on was three losses in a row). Let’s get right to it and try and make some money off this Pirates and Reds game.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds

Francisco Liriano (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Johnny Cueto (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

The last two seasons have been a resurgence for Liriano. Remember as a White Sock and Twin, Liriano was getting bashed around the park with great regularity. With the White Sox in 2012 he pitched for a 5.40 ERA and in the previous years with the Twins he went for a 5.34 ERA and 5.09 ERA. However, as a Pirate, Liriano came around to pitch the best of his career. Yielding an ERA of 3.02 ERA in 2013 and 3.38 in 2014. He also had a strong WHIP of 1.30 last season. But is there going to be some regression in 2015? A lot of people expected it last season after a stellar 2013 yet it didn’t come. It didn’t come in spring training this year either, where Liriano allowed only one run in 12 innings of work. That came off an Everth Cabrera dinger in his final start.

He is going to need more of that today against Cueto. He has also been a magician against the Pirates over the duration of his career. They haven’t been able to solve him. Against Pittsburgh, Cueto had a 2.21 ERA, and he wasn’t allowing many base runners either, as his WHIP was 0.99. It is a pretty big sample size too, as that is from 27 innings pitched against the Pirates. Last year at home he was virtually unhittable, sporting a 1.71 ERA over 131.2 innings pitched. He also had a WHIP of 0.83 in Cincinnati.

Liriano hasn’t had the best history pitching against the Red, a career 4.14 ERA. The Reds also get a healthy Joey Votto back and added Marlon Byrd in the offseason. Betting against Cueto isn’t a wise decision. I have made a ton of bank off him the last few seasons in this role, and getting only -122? I have to take a shot with that for my first pick of the season.

PICK: REDS TO WIN (-122)