All the Cubs needed was the 1st inning to do all that they needed to capture a victory last night. It was an uncharacteristic showing early on for Wainwright, but the 4 runs scored early was the only time he got into trouble. Unfortunately all the Cards could do is muster up 2 runs against Samardjiza, who pitched brilliantly. Yesterday was a day of the dogs, and a day that saw some excellent pitchers falter. Wainwright, Verlander, and Darvish all lost, so I sure hope someone didn’t lay the heavy juice on all these teams yesterday. The NBA finals garnered my attention yesterday, though, with an incredible OT between the Spurs and Heat. Back to baseball, where I am looking for an over under winner again for tonight.
Free MLB Pick:
Pittsburgh Pirates +122 at Cincinnati Reds -132 (Total: 8)
Jeff Locke (6-1, 2.19 ERA) vs. Bronson Arroyo (6-5, 3.27 ERA)
This game reminds me of the under we hit two nights ago between the Marlins and Diamondbacks. Two underrated pitchers on the mound that haven’t gotten much attention. There is also this perception that the Cincinnati Reds have a vaunted offense, after all, they do have some good players with Joey Votto, Brandon Philips, and Jay Bruce. All have the potential to do damage, but the rest of the Reds’ roster has held them back significantly. In fact, as a team, they are only batting .245 in total. In their last four games, the Reds have only managed to score 9 runs. Surprisingly, the Reds win a lot of games thanks to their pitching staff. Five straight games have gone under the total in Reds’ games.
With regards to the Pirates, I can’t really say they are an overrated offense because they don’t have much of an offense. Don’t get me wrong, the Pirates are capable of putting up an 8 run effort occasionally, but so can the Astros. Generally the Pirates are a team that relies on their pitching, and hope that Andrew McCutchen doesn’t have a bad day at the plate. Starting pitcher, Jeff Locke, is another one of those pitchers that have flew under the radar this season, but has pitched beyond expectations. Locke loves to play in others backyard, posting a 1.91 ERA in 42.1 innings pitched away from home. He has been great in his last three outings as well, with a 1.96 ERA allowing no homeruns. The total has also gone under the number in 5 out of their last 6 games on the road.
Bronson Arroyo will have the chance to continue his great pitching tonight, too. Arroyo has actually been better than Locke in his last three starts, tossing a 1.66 ERA against the Rockies, Cardinals, and Brewers. All three of the following offenses certainly have merit, so he wasn’t beating up on below average talent. While Locke likes the road, Arroyo loves the Great American Ballpark, notching an ERA of 2.64 and 1.12 WHIP.
I like the number here of 8. I managed to get it last night at 8.5 (-110), but I still like the UNDER 8, as I believe this one should be 7.5. You can also get plus money or close to it on the under, so I think this is a solid pick for Wednesday night.
Free Pick: UNDER 8