Our red-hot week continued yesterday as we went undefeated again and took our record to 8-2 on the week, with six of those wins coming as money line underdogs! Last night’s win came when we backed the Milwaukee Brewers at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates have really struggled at the plate recently as they had scored just seven runs in seven games on their recent homestand. While it looks like they might have broken out of that funk a little bit last night when they scored six runs, if you look a little closer you might feel otherwise.
The Brewers jumped out to a 4-0 first inning lead and took a 4-3 lead into the ninth inning. The Pirates were able to rally in the ninth to tie the game up and send it into extra innings. Neither team scored again until the fifteenth inning when all hell broke loose! The Pirates scored two runs in the top of the fifteenth and looked poised to steal game one of the series.
But in the bottom half of the fifteenth, the Brewers clapped right back and scored three runs to win the game in dramatic come from behind fashion. It was an exciting game, and we cashed our ticket. So, when you look at the six runs the Pirates scored, they scored just three runs in the first eight innings of the game, and then just three runs in the last seven innings of the game.
Yeah, they posted some runs, but they had to play nearly two full games to do it, so I am not ready to say they have broken out of their slump just yet. For today’s pick, I will stay right here in Milwaukee and break down game two of this series between the Brewers and the Pirates.
The Pittsburgh Pirates will look to break out of their recent funk today in Milwaukee, as they have dropped nine out of their last eleven games. The Pirates are seeing their postseason chances crumble before their eyes as they struggle down the stretch. For the Brewers, they are heating up at the right time, they have won four out of their last five games and are currently occupying the second wild-card slot in the National League.
Starting today for the Brewers is Jhoulys Chacin (13-4 3.58 ERA), and for the Pirates, it is Jameson Taillon (9-9 3.58 ERA). The Brewers are -130 home favorites. The game total over-under is set at eight and a half runs. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 PM PST from Miller Park in Milwaukee.
Jhoulys Chacin is very quietly having a breakout season for the Milwaukee Brewers. With his next win, he will tie his career high of wins with fourteen, and his ERA is a more than respectable 3.58. Chacin has really picked it up in the second half of the season as the Brewers have won seven out of his last nine starts and he has picked up a winning decision in his last three starts.
Over his last ten starts, Chacin has allowed two runs or fewer in seven of those games. The Brewers are 19-8 on the year when Chacin takes the mound. In two starts this season against the Pirates, Chacin has pitched a combined eleven and two-thirds of an inning and has given up just two earned runs.
Another guy that probably doesn’t get the respect he deserves is Pirates starter, Jameson Taillon. Taillon has seen his ERA hover right around the three-run mark most of the season, and he has emerged as Pittsburgh’s most reliable starter this year. Jameson is very familiar with the Brewers as he will be making his fourth start of the season against them tonight. In his previous three starts this season against the Brewers, Taillon is 1-1 and has allowed a combined five earned runs in sixteen innings of work, the Pirates have lost two out of those three games.
This game is very much a carbon copy of last night’s game. In fact, the betting line is identical right now, with the Brewers as -130 home favorites. The starting pitching matchup is a close one, I will give the nod slightly to Chacin, but Taillon is certainly better than his 9-9 record might lead you to believe. But I said it before last night’s game, I see the Pirates as in freefall right now, and after the gut punch they took last night by blowing a multi-run lead in extra innings, I only see that slide continuing tonight.
The Pirates just aren’t scoring enough runs right now, and they struggle on the road. Throw in the fact that the Brewers have been one of the best home teams in the National League this season, their thirty-nine home wins are the third most in the NL, and I expect them to take care of business again tonight.
As you all know I would much rather find spots to get dog money on baseball games, but every once in a while, I don’t mind laying a little wood if I feel the number is a bad one. And to me, this game is at least thirty points undervalued for Milwaukee. I expect the action to come in on Milwaukee and it could shift this number even further, so I suggest getting on it now while it is still reasonable. Give me the Milwaukee Brewers as -130 home favorites tonight in game two!