Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Pick – September 16, 2020

Probable Starters:

    JT Brubaker (1-1, 5.34 ERA) vs. Luis Castillo (2-5, 3.44 ERA)

Another day and another win for the Cincinnati Reds over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Reds have been doing what they need to do against an inferior opponent, as they will aim for a sweep of the visiting Pirates on Wednesday at the Great American Ball Park.

Their latest win was a 4-1 decision behind a solid performance by Michael Lorenzen. Lorenzen got some run support right out of the game. The Reds took a 3-0 lead in the 1st inning and didn’t look back. That was all the Reds needed to get the job done and advance to 24-26 on the season.

The Reds need to pick up wins against the beatable teams at this point in the season. There’s less than two weeks left in the regular season, so the Reds can’t afford to slip up against a team like the Pirates now. Even with three straight wins in this series, the Reds have to keep winning games down the stretch.

The Reds are the first team out in the National League right now. The San Francisco Giants continue to cling to the final wildcard. They were grounded against the Seattle Mariners yesterday because of poor air in Seattle. First it was the coronavirus postponing games, and now it’s the wildfires forcing teams to push back games.

Major League Baseball has announced that a bubble will be used for the postseason. The Texas Rangers’ new stadium in Arlington will play host to the playoffs in October. We’ll have to wait and see if the Reds are going to be playing in Texas.

Luis Castillo, who seems to be heating up recently, will be assigned with the final game of this series in Cincinnati. The Pirates are expected to counter with JT Brubaker on the hill. Brubaker needs a good start to attempt to get his ERA below 5.00 before the curtain closes on the 2020 season. Head below for our free Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds pick for September 16, 2020.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Odds:


  • Pirates +1.5 (-107)
  • Reds -1.5 (-113)

  • Pirates (+193)
  • Reds (-212)

  • Over 8.5 (-115)
  • Under 8.5 (-105)

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction:

The Reds have a terrific 1-2-3 punch with Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, and Trevor Bauer. Gray is out with a back injury right now, but hopes to pitch again before the end of the regular season. When all three are healthy and rolling, that’s a pretty tough rotation to match. I wouldn’t want to face those three hurlers in October if I’m an opposing team in the National League.

Castillo didn’t start incredibly hot this season, but the 27-year-old is beginning to feel it. After allowing 4 earned runs against the Chicago Cubs on August 30, Castillo has conceded 3 earned runs in his last 15 innings of work. Castillo is coming off a complete game in his last showing against the St. Louis Cardinals.

He held the Cardinals to 2 hits and 1 earned run through 9 innings. Castillo brought his ERA down from a 3.95 to a 3.44, and WHIP from a 1.48 to a 1.32. He pitched versus Pirates on September 4 and was sharp with 2 earned runs allowed across 6 innings of work. The Bucs are hitting a pedestrian .226 with 1 home run in 90 at-bats against Castillo in his career.

JT Brubaker will make the first start of his career against the Reds on Wednesday. It hasn’t gone well for Brubaker against most of the teams he’s played this season. The 26-year-old rookie has notched an ERA of 5.34 and 1.48 WHIP through 30.1 innings of work.

He is coming off a gaudy performance versus the White Sox, as Brubaker was torched for 7 hits and 7 earned runs in 5.1 innings. If Brubaker decides to show up today, I still feel more comfortable in Castillo coming out of Wednesday with a sweep over the Pirates in Cincinnati.


The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.