Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick – MLB July 10, 2022

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers conclude a three-game series at American Family Field on Sunday afternoon. This is a rubber match after the Pirates and Brewers split the first two games, 4-3 for the Brewers on Friday and then the same score for the Pirates yesterday.

The Bucs scored 4 tuns in the top of the 7th to erase a deficit and hold on for the lead. Pittsburgh isn’t competing for the NL Central title, but they’re not a team to sleep on. That’s a good way to end up losing to the Pirates.

It’s hard to call a 35-50 club improved, but the Pirates finished 61-101 last season and weren’t competitive in most games. Even in games the Pirates lose, they’re usually putting up acceptable resistance.

This wasn’t the case last season, or for the few years since finishing 82-79 in 2018. The 60-game season was a throwaway, as they finished 19-41 and dead last in the NL Central. In other words, you can’t fault what they’re doing too much in 2022.

There is plenty of room for improvement, but there are small things to pick out that look much better for the Bucs.

The Brewers are in control of the NL Central at the moment, though. They have a 3.5-game lead on the St. Louis Cardinals going into Sunday.

Milwaukee is in fine shape, but there isn’t any team that sticks out in the division. They are good, though not great.

The Brewers are expected to send lefty Eric Lauer to the mound to close out this series on Sunday. Jose Quintana provides the Bucs with a quality option of their own.

Head below for our free Pirates vs. Brewers prediction on July 10, 2022.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Live Betting Odds:

MLB Odds Courtesy of Bovada:
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (-135) +143 Over 8 (-105)
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+115) -174 Under 8 (-115)
Team Data Pittsburgh Pirates Milwaukee Brewers
Overall Record 35-50 48-38
Away/Home Record 15-27 21-18
Batting Average .218 .234
Batting Average Away/Home .211 .232
Runs Per 9 3.69 4.64
Team ERA 4.78 3.74
Team ERA Away/Home 4.77 3.54

Pirates vs. Brewers Prediction:

Jose Quintana has developed into the ace of the Pirates’ rotation. He’s been in his best form since over five years ago in Chicago. That’s nice, and all; the Pirates are getting more out of Quintana than they expected. They need some of their young talents to come around and contribute, though.

Quintana is a 33-year-old veteran that wasn’t expected to be an ace.

He lost the script over the past few years, with an ERA worse than 4.00 in four straight campaigns. Quintana spent time with the Cubs, Angels, and Giants, with nothing working for him.

Pittsburgh is usually a place pitchers leave, and they begin to find success elsewhere. However, Quintana arrived in Pittsburgh and began to find his vintage form again.

Quintana inked a year deal with the Pirates worth $2,000,000. The Bucs took a flier on him, and it’s worked out well.

Quintana is on pace to sign a better contract in the offseason.

He’s going into this afternoon with an ERA of 3.33 and a 1.28 WHIP across 81 innings. Quintana was sharp in his previous three starts with a 2.12 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 5-5
  • 2-5 overall in their previous seven games on a Sunday
  • 11-40 overall in their previous 51 third game of a series
  • UNDER is 6-1 in their previous seven games on the road
  • UNDER is 4-0 in their previous four games
  • UNDER is 17-5-5 in their previous 27 games on the road versus a left-handed starter


  • Record (Last 10): 5-5
  • 5-0 overall in their previous five games versus a left-handed starter
  • 25-10 overall in their previous 25 games on a Sunday
  • UNDER is 4-1 in their previous five games
  • UNDER is 10-4 overall in their previous 14 games versus a left-handed starter
  • UNDER is 4-0-1 in their previous five games versus the Brewers

  • Eric Lauer is another lefty that will be featured in this one at American Family Field. Lauer had three of four starts on the road, which wasn’t good for him at all.

    Lauer hasn’t liked pitching on the road, but is an asset in Milwaukee.

    As soon as Lauer got back home, he had success with 2 hits and 1 earned run allowed against the Cubs in his most recent performance on July 4.

    Lauer has been dependable against the Bucs, as they’ve scored just 2 RBIs and 1 home run vs him through 61 at-bats. He should have the upper hand in this one.

    The Pirates are hitting just .211 on the road this season. Overall, they’re 29th in the majors with a team batting average of .219 and 28th with 3.73 runs per 9 innings.

    The series finale in Milwaukee likely just stays UNDER the number. The UNDER is what I’m looking at in Milwaukee this afternoon.


    Pirates vs. Brewers Pick
    UNDER 8
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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