Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres Pick – MLB May 28, 2022

The Pittsburgh Pirates thought they had the San Diego Padres, and then they didn’t. The Padres clawed back for a 4-3 win. San Diego scored 3 runs in the bottom of the 6th to erase a 3-0 deficit and then another run in the 8th to take the lead.

Jose Quintana had such a strong outing for the Pirates, and it went for nothing. Quintana allowed 4 hits in 5.1 innings of work. He left the game without a run on the board, and then the Bucs’ bullpen gave the game up.

Will Crowe was tagged for 1 hit and 1 earned run in 1.2 innings, while Duane Underwood blew the matchup for good. Underwood conceded 2 hits and 1 earned run in an inning.

That’s a tough one for the Pirates, who are at 18-26 going into tonight. They have improved from last season, but bad teams have a tough time finishing games. That’s what happened last night at Petco Park.

Pittsburgh is not looking at being a postseason team this season, but progress would be a win in 2022.

The Pirates went 61-101 a season ago, so they can’t ask for too much. Conversely, the Padres had a disappointing campaign as well, but a lot more was expected out of them.

San Diego finished with a record of 79-83 and a whopping 28 games behind the Giants for the lead. That was not supposed to happen. The Padres were expected to have a say, though this didn’t occur clearly.

They’re back in the mix this season and off to a pretty good start. The Padres are 29-16 and two games behind the Dodgers.

Quintana has been a fireball for the Pirates this season. However, they’re going to J.T. Brubaker, who has been a liability on the mound. Joe Musgrove counters for the Padres.

Head below for our free Pirates vs. Padres prediction on May 28, 2022.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres Live Betting Odds:

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:
Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (-110) +190 Over 7 (+105)
San Diego Padres -1.5 (-110) -230 Under 7 (-125)
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Team Data Pittsburgh Pirates San Diego Padres
Overall Record 18-26 29-16
Away/Home Record 7-12 12-9
Batting Average .221 .228
Batting Average Away/Home .213 .215
Runs Per 9 3.47 4.34
Team ERA 4.66 3.40
Team ERA Away/Home 5.51 3.30

Pirates vs. Padres Prediction:

J.T Brubaker is a notable downgrade from Jose Quintana on the bump. Brubaker is going into this one with an ERA of 4.64 and a 1.36 WHIP through an average of 4.2 innings per game.

Brubaker has appeared in nine games this season. He was looking at a breakout campaign after posting an ERA of 5.36 in his second season in the majors, but Brubaker isn’t at that point, at least not yet.

He’s been worse off on the road, with an ERA of 5.40 and a 1.38 WHIP as a visiting team. Brubaker is coming off his most productive start of the season, but this was at PNC Park where he’s been pretty capable.

Brubaker lasted 6.2 innings with 5 hits and no earned runs allowed last week.

The Padres are hitting .263 with a .323 OBP in 31 at-bats. They were heating up at the plate after Quintana left the game.

Quintana was pitching well going into that game as well, so he had everything to do with keeping the Padres at bay. The Bucs aren’t going to have the same luxury with Brubaker at Petco Park.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres Betting Trends:


  • Record (Last 10): 3-7
  • 0-5 overall in their previous five games in the second game of a series
  • 20-53 overall in their previous 73 games as an underdog on the road
  • 17-42 overall in their previous 59 games versus a team with a winning record
  • 9-20 overall in their previous 29 games versus the NL West
  • 1-4 overall in their previous five games versus the Padres


  • Record (Last 10): 7-3
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five games after a win
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five games versus a team with a losing record
  • 7-3 overall in their previous ten games versus a team a losing record
  • 14-6 overall in their previous 20 games as a betting favorite
  • 4-1 overall in their previous five games versus the Pirates

  • Joe Musgrove holds a sizable advantage over Brukaber in this contest. Musgrove is going into tonight with an ERA of 1.90 and a 0.94 WHIP. He probably doesn’t get the accolades he should after a strong season in his first year with the Padres.

    Musgrove finished with an ERA of 3.18 and a 1.08 WHIP last season.

    He’s looked confident in improving his production from last year. Musgrove is going into Saturday evening with an ERA of 1.90 and a 0.94 WHIP.

    I’m on the Padres to make things easier on themselves tonight. He’s a perfect 5-0 at home and should have the motivation to pitch well against the team that gave up on him two years ago. Expect them to pull away and not require a come-from-behind effort for a win.


    Pirates vs. Padres Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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