Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins MLB Pick – July 21

The MLB is back in swing after the All-Star break on July 21. Six games are up on the board throughout Thursday. One of these games will be between the Texas Rangers and Miami Marlins. These two teams have struggled a bit on the season, but will look for a win in this one. This game will throw the first pitch at around 1:10 PM Eastern time.

Texas has earned a record of 41-49 throughout this season, which has them sitting in third place of the AL West. The Rangers have lost four games in a row and are 4-6 throughout their last 10 games. Texas is seven and a half games out of a wild card spot entering this one. The Rangers will look to get back on track with a win on the road.

The Marlins have put up a record of 43-48 so far on the season, which has them in fourth place of the NL East. Miami has lost three games in a row and have also gone 4-6 in their last 10 matchups. The Marlins are five and a half games back on the wild card. Miami will look to step up early at home on Thursday afternoon.

These two teams are both sitting just outside of the playoff race entering this matchup. Both teams struggled in their last stretch of games before the All-Star break and will look to bounce back in this one. Miami has been a bit better on the season and will look to get the early edge. If either team can come out fast, it could be enough for the win.

Game Overview

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Teams Spread Money Line Total
Texas Rangers +1 ½ (-200) +100 Over 7 (-110)
Miami Marlins -1 ½ (+170) -120 Under 7 (-110)
Team Data Texas Rangers Miami Marlins
Overall Record 41-49 43-48
Away/ Home Record 20-23 22-22
Batting Average .239 .237
Batting Average Away/ Home .242 .244
ERA 4.10 3.78
ERA Away/ Home 3.99 3.52

Betting Trends

Texas Rangers

  • 5-11 in July games
  • 5-4 when playing on Thursday
  • 8-7 in inter-league play
  • 12-22 in day games
  • 25-36 against right handers
  • 22-27 after a loss
  • 5-5 after three or more straight losses
  • 22-22 against team with a losing record

Miami Marlins

  • 9-8 in July
  • 7-2 when playing on a Thursday
  • 5-7 in inter-league games
  • 18-19 in day games
  • 32-40 against right handed starters
  • 4-3 after getting shut out
  • 23-25 after a loss
  • 6-3 after three or more straight losses
  • 25-17 against team with a losing record

These two teams haven’t met up since the 2017 season. Miami won two of the three games in the season series. The Marlins are coming off a three game set with the Philadelphia Phillies before the All-Star break, where they lost by a combined score of 16-1. Texas was swept in four games against the Seattle Mariners. Seattle outscored the Rangers 23-12 in those games.


The Rangers have been solid hitting the ball this season. Texas has a .239 batting average, which is 18th in the league. The Rangers have earned an OBP of .299, which is 27th in the MLB. Texas has posted a .698 OPS, which is 16th in the league. The Rangers have a BA of .235 against right handers.

Miami has been solid at the plate throughout the season. The Marlins have a batting average of .237, which is 22nd in the MLB. Miami has put up a .302 on base percentage, which is 23rd in the league. The Marlins have earned an OPS of .681, which is 26th in the MLB. Miami has hit .243 against righties this season.

These two teams have been solid hitting the ball this season and will look to get going early in this one. Texas has been a bit better in the batting average and OPS department, while the Marlins have the better OBP. If either team can hit well early in this one, it could be enough for the win on Thursday night.

Pitching Preview

I expect Jon Gray to get the start at pitcher for Texas in this one. Gray has started in 16 games this season, going 6-4 in those matchups. He has posted a 3.71 ERA and a WHIP of 1.13 in those outings. Gray’s last start was against the Oakland Athletics. He gave up one hit through seven innings en route to the win.

Pablo Lopez will likely get the nod on the mound for the Marlins on Thursday night. Lopez has earned a record of 6-4 throughout his 18 starts this season. He has put up an ERA of 2.86 and a 1.07 WHIP in those starts. Lopez pitched five innings in his last start against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the no decision.

These two pitchers have been solid this season and will look for a big win in this one. Gray has won five of his last six starts, while Lopez won two of his last three decisions. Texas has the edge in the bullpen. The Rangers relievers have a 3.71 ERA, which is 13th in the league. Miami’s bullpen has a combined ERA of 4.04, which is 19th in the MLB.

Pick Overview

These two teams are sitting around .500 at the All-Star break this season and will look to step up in this one. The Marlins have been a bit better on the season and will look to get back on track. Gray has been great as of late, but I think Miami can attack him early. If the Marlins can get the early lead, it could be enough for the win.

Bovada has Miami listed as a -120 against the money line in this one. This implies that the Marlins will win this game around 54.6 percent of the time. I think that this line is accurate with Miami at home. The Marlins have the better start on the mound in this one, which I think will lead them to the win. As slight favorites, I like the value of Miami.

The Bet
Miami Marlins
Andruw Burling / Author

Andruw Burling has been writing sports picks since 2017, covering mainly NHL and NBA content, but doing work in other sports as well. Andruw grew up in Las Vegas and has been around sports since a young age. He grew up a huge NHL and NBA fan and continues to use that knowledge in his content today.

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