Tampa Bay Rays vs Cincinnati Reds MLB Pick – July 10

The MLB is set up with another great slate of baseball action on Sunday. Fifteen games are up on the board throughout July 10. One of these games will be between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cincinnati Reds. These two teams are on opposite sides of the standings, but will look for a win in this one. This game will throw the first pitch at around 1:40 PM Eastern time.

Tampa Bay has earned a record of 45-39 throughout this season, which has them sitting in second place of the AL East. The Rays are currently in a wild card spot and will look to hold on with a big win. Tampa Bay has lost two games in a row and are 5-5 in their last 10 games. The Rays will look to step up early on the road.

The Reds have put up a record of 31-54 so far on the season, which has them in fifth place of the NL Central. Cincinnati has won three games in a row and have gone 5-5 throughout their last 10 matchups. The Reds have fallen out of the playoff race, but will look to keep this winning streak going. Cincinnati will look for another big win at home on Sunday.

These two teams have been solid throughout this season and will look for a big win on Sunday afternoon. The Rays have struggled a bit as of late, but are still holding onto a playoff spot. Cincinnati will look to remain hot after winning their last three games. If either team can get the early lead, it could be enough for the win.

Game Overview

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Teams Spread Money Line Total
Tampa Bay Rays -1 ½ (+120) -140 Over 9 (-110)
Cincinnati Reds +1 ½ (-140) +117 Under 9 (-110)
Team Data Tampa Bay Rays Cincinnati Reds
Overall Record 45-39 31-54
Away/ Home Record 20-22 17-28
Batting Average .237 .238
Batting Average Away/ Home .241 .250
ERA 3.27 5.29
ERA Away/ Home 3.53 5.30

Betting Trends

Tampa Bay Rays

  • 5-4 in July
  • 8-5 when playing on Sunday
  • 10-5 in inter-league play
  • 20-13 in day games
  • 10-11 against left handed starters
  • 18-15 against team with a losing record

Cincinnati Reds

  • 5-5 in July games
  • 7-6 when playing on a Sunday
  • 6-5 in inter-league games
  • 12-22 in day games
  • 23-37 against right handers
  • 14-36 against team with a winning record

These two teams have met up two times throughout this season. Brandon Drury had a home run in the first meeting and Tyler Naquin scored the walk off run with a balk as the Reds won 2-1. Nick Senzel and Drury both had two RBI’s in Saturday’s game. Senzel hit the walk off single in the bottom of the 10th as Cincinnati won 5-4.


The Rays have struggled a bit at the plate throughout this season. Tampa Bay has a .237 batting average, which is 21st in the league. The Rays have earned an OBP of .303, which is 23rd in the MLB. Tampa Bay has put up a .680 OPS, which is 26th in the league. The Rays have a BA of .253 against lefties this season.

Cincinnati has been a bit better hitting the ball on the season. The Reds have a batting average of .238, which is 20th in the MLB. Cincinnati has posted a .308 on base percentage, which is 20th in the league. The Reds have earned an OPS of .682, which is 25th in the MLB. Cincinnati has hit .233 against right handers.

The Reds have been a bit better at the plate this season and will look to take advantage again. Cincinnati had 17 hits and 7 runs throughout the first two games of this set. The Rays earned 13 hits and 5 runs in those games. If either team can hit well early in this one, it could be enough for the win on Sunday afternoon.

Pitching Preview

I expect Shane Baz to get the start at pitcher for Tampa Bay in this one. Baz has started in 5 games this season, going 1-1 in those outings. He has posted a 2.92 ERA and a WHIP of 1.135 in those games. Baz’s last start was against the Toronto Blue Jays. He gave up seven hits and one run through six innings in the winning decision.

Nick Lodolo will likely get the nod on the mound for the Reds on Sunday afternoon. Lodolo has earned a record of 1-2 throughout his 4 starts on the season. He has put up an ERA of 4.19 and a 1.500 WHIP in those matchups. Lodolo pitched four and two thirds innings in his last start against the New York Mets. He gave up three hits and no runs in the no decision.

These two pitchers have been strong in their limited starts this season, but will look for a big win in this one. Tampa Bay has had the better bullpen entering this matchup. The Rays relievers have a 3.37 ERA, which is 8th in the league. Cincinnati’s bullpen has a combined ERA of 5.43, which is 30th in the MLB. The Reds will need that bullpen to step up in this one.

Pick Overview

Cincinnati has won the first two games of this three game set and will look to sweep it with a win on Sunday. I think the Rays will come out quicker in this one though. Tampa Bay has the better pitching in this one and with two young pitchers starting, I expect the bullpens to play a big role. If the Rays can get the early lead, I think they can grab the win.

Bovada has Tampa Bay listed as a -140 against the money line in this one. This implies that the Rays will win this game around 58.3 percent of the time. I think that this line should be bigger with Tampa Bay being much better this season. I expect the Rays to bounce back after the last two losses. As slight favorites, I like the value on Tampa Bay to get the win.

The Bet
Tampa Bay Rays
Andruw Burling / Author

Andruw Burling has been writing sports picks since 2017, covering mainly NHL and NBA content, but doing work in other sports as well. Andruw grew up in Las Vegas and has been around sports since a young age. He grew up a huge NHL and NBA fan and continues to use that knowledge in his content today.

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