Rays vs. Yankees MLB Pick – July 15th

The New York Yankees got back on the winning track with a 4-2 win Sunday. They dropped a close one to the Blue Jays by a score of 2-1 the day before. The Yankees have won two of their previous five games, so they have slowed down a tad since going on a torrid pace. They went 15-2 beginning on June 15th before losing two in a row against Tampa before the All-Star break.

While they are super packed with talent in their lineup, it wasn’t too realistic to expect them to continue to win at the rate they were. Since getting healthier, the Yankees have been one of the best teams in the majors. Despite failing to blow the doors off the Blue Jays this past weekend, don’t be too concerned about the Yankees.

This is a team who are going to be even better if they can get Luis Severino back on the bump. He has finally been cleared to start throwing again, but there isn’t any clear timetable to his return on the diamond. The Yankees are likely going to be cautious when he come backs. Even if it’s just out of the bullpen in the postseason, their pitching staff is going to look a lot better with him healthy.

As far as Giancarlo Stanton is concerned, his return to the lineup doesn’t appear to be close. He’s on the IL for the second time this season, and currently in rehab to repair an injured right knee. Stanton is an amazing talent who has struggled to stay on the field.

Even though they’re down Stanton, there is still enough power to go around at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees will look to give Blake Snell a headache on Monday night. The defending Cy Young winner has failed to duplicate his 2018 success thus far, but we’ll see if the second-half holds a different story for Snell.

The Rays trail the Yanks by 6 games in the AL East and are going to need him for any chance of a comeback. Despite a sloppy first-half for Snell, the Rays are the only starting staff in the majors with an ERA below 3.00. James Paxton is scheduled to counter for the Yankees. Head below for our free Rays vs. Yankees pick.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. N.Y. Yankees Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Yankees -138/Rays +118
  • O/U: 8.5

Pitching Matchup:

  • Blake Snell (5-7, 4.70 ERA)
  • James Paxton (5-4, 4.01 ERA)

Betting odds provided by bovada.lv

Blake Snell has been finding out that it isn’t easy to be a perennial elite pitcher in the major leagues. What guys like Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander have accomplished for so many years is quite astounding. Snell was elite for one season, which was good enough to earn a Cy Young, with an ERA of 1.89, but one season doesn’t put him in elite company with Kershaw and JV.

Snell will look to improve on a 4.70 ERA at Yankee Stadium on Monday. In his most recent trip to the Bronx, Snell was destroyed against the Yankees. He got tagged for 6 earned runs with only 1 out recorded. Snell would get pulled with 6 runs on his resume without getting at least 2 outs in that showing.

The road has been a difficult place for Snell in 2019. He’s been solid at home, with an ERA of 3.17 and 1.08 WHIP. However, his effort on the road takes a turn for the worse. Snell currently owns a 6.48 ERA and 1.54 WHIP on the road in 2019. There’s no way around those awful numbers.

If you consider the Rays’ overall pitching numbers, it’s crazy to think that they’re still 1st despite Snell having a 4.70 ERA. That also includes Tyler Glasnow being on the shelf since May 10th. The Yankees have hit 9 long balls and scored 25 runs on Snell in 176 at-bats. Gary Sanchez has been a major threat, with 4 home runs and 7 RBI’s to lead the Yanks against Snell.

Note that Snell is 2-8 in his last ten games against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. On the other side, James Paxton has yet to yield a home run against the Rays and has allowed just 3 runs in 44 at-bats. Paxton has surrendered 2 or less runs in four out of his previous five starts.

He’s also been much better at home, where he has been good for an ERA of 3.26 and 1.24 WHIP. In what is typically a friendly place to hit dingers, Paxton has allowed only 4 home runs at Yankee Stadium. Consider backing Paxton and the Yankees in this spot.

The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.