Red Sox at Yankees – Free Pick July 29th


Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (Total: 9.5)

Felix Doubront vs. Hiroki Kuroda

One of the most stories and contentious rivalries in all of sports takes center stage tonight on ESPN’s Sunday Night Game of the Week when the Red Sox and Yankees conclude their three-game set.  They’ve split the first two games of the series on the strength of Boston’s comeback 8-6 win last night, but despite the win, things are still looking pretty bleak in Boston.  They are currently 10 ½ games behind the Yankees, but more importantly are LAST in the AL East and five games back in the wildcard race and are chasing six teams.  Time is getting short for the BoSox, and every win counts which makes tonight’s rubber game even more important for Boston and for Felix Doubront.

Doubront has an excellent record at 10-5, but that win total is aided by some good fortune and tremendous run support.  His ERA is over four and a half and his WHIP of 1.40 certainly won’t inspire fear in opposing lineups.  His last three starts have fallen in line with most of his season results; good record (2-1) with a high ERA (5.39).  Tonight’s loaded Yankee lineup will certainly test Doubront’s skills tonight.

The Yankees have been pedestrian lately, winning just four of their last ten games, however it hasn’t affected them too much in the standings.  They still possess an eight and a half game lead in the AL East, and don’t seem to be in any remote danger of being caught.  To put their massive division lead in perspective: the last time the Yankees had a lead of seven games of greater this late in the season and did NOT make the Playoffs?  1933.

The Yankees are big favorites tonight at -155, however you can also consider backing them on the -1.5 runline and get the money bumped all the way up to +120 or +125.  The Yankees are 6-2 in their last eight matchups, and hold a large run differential advantage at 65-43.  That’s an average per game run output of 8.1 to 5.4.

The Yankees have won all six of the games by more than one run, and only two of the games were two run differentials, the rest significantly more.  That makes me feel pretty good about the -1.5 runline at home, but I also LOVE the OVER.  These games have been averaging 13.5 runs this season, and neither team is throwing an ace tonight.  That makes the 9.5 run average seem paltry by comparison.

I’m making three wagers on tonight’s game; feel free to join me on one, none or all…

Free Picks:   New York Yankees to WIN -155; Yankees -1.5 (+125), and RUN TOTAL OVER 9.5