Red Sox vs. Cardinals Pick – May 17th

We have a full slate of MLB action today with every National League team in action, so after a slump-busting day off yesterday, it is time to get back to work!

Yesterday was a good day for favorites. The Nationals stayed hot, opening the series in Pittsburgh with an 8-4 win as Stephen Strasburg pushed his season mark to 4-1. The Cubs won big in their series opener against Cincinnati to get back to .500 (and hand the Reds their fourth-straight loss, pushing them down to .500), and the Diamondbacks got the 5-4 win at home over the Mets with Zack Greinke pushing his record to 5-2 on the season.

Wednesday’s usually mean a healthy amount of day games, so if you like the lines on the Astros and Marlins, the Mets and Diamondbacks or Dodgers and Giants, get your plays in early.  For today’s featured pick, we are focusing on the evening contest between the Boston Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals on ESPN.

Today’s MLB Pick:

Boston Red Sox +103 at St. Louis Cardinals -101 (Total: 8)
Rick Porcello (2-5, 4.03 ERA) vs. Mike Leake (4-2, 1.94 ERA)

If you just tuned in to your first game of the season today, you’d assume the above pitching stat lines were reversed. After all, Rick Porcello is the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner, and Mike Leake has been a solid pitcher for nearly a decade, but never even a top of the rotation guy, let alone league leader in ERA. Yet those numbers are very real, and they indicate a great opportunity to get a hot baseball team at a nice price today.

The Cardinals offense sputtered early, but was one of the best lineups in baseball in 2016 and has showed signs of kicking into gear the last month. They enter tonight winners of eight of their last ten games despite last night’s loss. Boston is just 5-5 over their last ten and just two games over .500 on the season. A big reason for their mediocre start has been the injury to David Price coupled with the regression of surprise Cy Young winner, Rick Porcello.

Porcello allowed five runs in six innings in his last outing (only three earned runs, to be fair), so perhaps his struggles aren’t quite yet coming to a close. It’s a good spot for the Cardinals tonight to bounce back after a poor performance last night.

I’ll take the hotter team with the hotter pitcher at home.


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