My winning streak was halted at five games last night with the Angels and Mariners coming up just short of the run total. It’s always frustrating to drop a pick on an OVER in a game with twenty hits, two errors and three walks. That adds up to 25 base runner, which generally leads to a few more runs.
Alas, we will try to start a new streak today with a focus on tonight’s Sunday Night ESPN game between two of the best teams in the bigs, the Dodgers and Red Sox.
Today’s Free Pick:
Boston Red Sox -106 at Los Angeles Dodgers -104 (Total: 7.5)
Jake Peavy (9-5, 4.25 ERA) vs. Chris Capuano (4-6, 4.70 ERA)
If you are a starting pitcher who hasn’t been particularly sharp this season or in their last few outings, there aren’t many things more daunting that an upcoming nationally televised start against the Red Sox or Dodgers… yet that is exactly what is in store for Capuano and Peavy tonight in Los Angeles.
The Dodgers hot play has been well documented and well publicized, but somewhat under the radar (comparatively anyhow) the Boston Red Sox enter the game 21 games over .500 and with the second-best run differential in the American League at +112. As a team they are hitting .273, second only to Detroit, and with a league-leading 653 runs scored. Their offense has been absolutely potent, and I’d expect them to fare well against Capuano tonight.
Chris Capuano has struggled in his last three outings, posting an ERA of 7.53 and a WHIP over two. Yet, life is good as a Dodger these days, and he has managed to avoid a decision in all three outings and his mates bashed enough runs that the Dodgers actually WON all three games. That is the predominant reason I am avoiding picking a winner in tonight’s toss-up of a game. Regardless of how many runs Capuano OR Peavy give up, it is still possible their potent offenses will get them off the hook.
Peavy hasn’t been much better lately. The Sox hoped his addition would lessen the blow of losing Bucholtz, but it hasn’t worked out that way lately. Peavy is 0-1 with a 4.86 ERA in his last three outings, and the Red Sox have lost all three games. He is going to need to give them a much better outing tonight, but he is facing a hot and deep Dodger lineup that will likely prevent that from happening.
This should be an entertaining game for sure, and frankly, I’m surprised the total wasn’t around 8.5. At 7.5, it makes for an easy pick for me; I’ll take the OVER and enjoy some Sunday night fireworks.
Free Pick: Run TOTAL OVER 7.5