gravatar

Reds at Diamondbacks – Free Pick August 28th

Cincinnati Reds -108 at Arizona Diamondbacks -102 (Total: 8)

Johnny Cueto vs. Wayne Miley

Tonight features one of the best pitching matchups you will see this season, especially considering the inverse relationship to how much attention it will garner.  Cueto, who for the second straight year has been an All-Star worthy (though not recipient) pitcher, might be the least talked about Cy Young candidate in the National League.  He leads the National League with 16 wins and has the league’s lowest ERA at just 2.47.

And if Cueto seems under recognized for his efforts, just think how Wayne Miley must feel.  He is 14-8 with a 2.80 ERA, leading all rookies by a vast amount and placing him in the same breath as the league’s top pitchers; Cueto, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Clayton Kershaw, etc.  Yet not only is he rarely mentioned as even a fringe Cy Young candidate, he is rarely one of the first names listed in Rookie of the Year consideration.

Both pitchers will look to string together yet another dominant outing tonight against a relatively strong offense.  So who has the edge tonight??

Cueto pitched fantastic against Arizona in July, a game the Reds won 3-0, while Miley also pitched well against the Reds in July, allowing two runs (though pitching just 5.2 innings).   Both lineups have seen the other once, but I give the slight edge to Cueto, being in his fifth year it is hard to include an element of surprise as a component of his success.  However, for many rookies, the second time they face an opponent is often much more difficult.

The Reds have been the best team in baseball since the All Star break, and continue to win at a ridiculous 67% clip since the injury to Joey Votto nearly six weeks ago.  Arizona has lost four in a row and six of their last eight; an ill-timed losing streak as they try to keel pace with division leading San Fran and new-look Los Angeles in the NL West.

I like the Reds tonight, and I really like the fact I can get Cueto facing a team he has already shutout at just -108.  However, I really like the UNDER 8 total tonight as well.  Cueto is 2-0 with a 1.73 ERA in his last three starts.  Miley is 2-1 with a 2.54 ERA.  Both have WHIPs that are indicative that the low ERAs are not a fluke; 0.76 for Cueto and 1.25 for Miley.  Add in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, and it is easy to see tonight’s score remaining low.

Free Picks:  Cincinnati Reds to WIN -108, Run TOTAL UNDER 8 (-105)