Cincinnati Reds +120 at New York Mets -130 (Total: 7.5)
Mike Leake (0-5, 7.11 ERA) vs Johan Santana (1-2, 2.92 ERA)
I’m not sure it gets much plainer or easier than this one folks. Mike Leake has been dreadful and is likely one outing away from finding himself either in AAA Louisville or the bullpen. The Reds have Aroldis Chapman waiting in the wings; most of his 101-mph blazing fastballs having been hurled in the seventh or eighth innings so far in 2012. Where he has allowed…. wait for it… wait…. ZERO RUNS the entire season. As in ‘no one on Earth can hit this dude’ filthy. So, uffice it to say a sixth loss against no victories and a plus-seven ERA don’t make Mike Leake long for the Cincinnati rotation.
Meanwhile, the Mets, despite a negative run differential that suggests this start is a mirage, continue to do the most important thing; WIN. They are 20-16, and a big reason so far is the ridiculous bat of David Wright. With the Ruthian insanity Josh Hamilton is throwing up in Texas and the injury to Matt Kemp, David Wright has been about as under the radar as a guy hitting .400 in mid-May and playing in New York can possibly be. He has been carrying the Mets offensively so far, but will obviously need a little help to keep the Mets in contention in the brutal National League East. Facing a guy who tops out around 88-mph and is sporting a plus-seven ERA should be a nice recipe.
The Mets also have another thing going for them tonight at home; lefty ace Johan Santana appears to finally be healthy and fully rehabbed. He isn’t the filthy dominant Santana of 2008, but he has been pretty darn good this season. He has a WHIP of just 1.16 on the season, and in his last three starts he has given quality outings in all of them, sporting a tidy ERA of 2.81. The Reds hit left-handed pitching well as a team, but I expect them to have some difficulty with Santana tonight.
This game, if I were just handed the two teams, the two starting pitchers and told the game was in New York (which it is) and asked to set the line, this feels like a +160/-170 matchup. Certainly not an opportunity to get the Mets at just -130. I am surprised, but I’ll take the soft line tonight; hopefully smiling all the way to the bank.
Free Pick: New York Mets to WIN -130 <– click here for $100 FREE BET