The Cincinnati Reds have been a dangerous team for bettors over the last two months. If you just take what they did to open the season, they’d be an auto-fade machine. However, they’ve pulled their pants up and been playing good in spots. They were good over the weekend, as they delivered a sweep against the Giants. That came after a four-game losing streak for the Reds, so it’s been a little bit of this and a little bit of that for the Reds this year.
Don’t get the winning streaks too seriously in Cincinnati, because they can come right back and let you down. Credit to the Reds for not giving up on their season, though. They could have easily called it a year and mailed it in, but Joey Votto wasn’t having it. Votto recently went on the DL after getting drilled by a pitch to the lower-leg. He was the one who came out publicly frustrated with how things were going in the first-half.
Since Votto’s comments, the Reds have been playing better baseball. Despite sweeping the Giants over the weekend, no Votto in the lineup certainly hurts the Reds, though. He is one of the best in baseball in getting on base and his services are missed for sure. Meanwhile, the Brewers return home after a 3-4 seven-game road trip. They were able to avoid a sweep against the Cardinals on Sunday with a 2-1 win. The Brewers needed the win to stay within arms reach of the Cubs. Milwaukee are 3.5 down as we head into a new week of play. They have to worry about catching a wildcard, which looks more realistic. If the postseason began today, they’d miss out by half a game. Chase Anderson hopes to get the Brewers on the other side tonight. Homer Bailey is scheduled to counter for the Reds. Get our free Reds vs. Brewers pick below.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick
Homer Bailey (1-10, 6.33 ERA) vs. Chase Anderson (7-7, 3.97 ERA)
Homer Bailey returned to the starting rotation on July 24th and it was good for a couple of outings for him. But I said to be cautious with him, he shut down the Cards for 2 runs on the 24th and then did the same in his next start against the Tigers. That’s not what we’ve seen from Baily over the course of the last three years, though. I would say his arm was just feeling fresh after being out of the majors since May.
He was quick to unravel in his next two starts. Bailey was exploited for 5 runs in 3.2 innings against the Mets, and then the Indians got to him for 5 runs in 5.2 innings. That is certainly the same Homer Bailey we’ve seen from 2015 to 2018. Dating back to May, Bailey has allowed at least 4 runs in five of his last seven starts. The Brewers have also nailed Bailey with a batting average of .326 and 8 long balls in 132 at-bats. Ryan Braun has demolished Bailey for 4 dingers and .340 average. Lorenzo Cain has had success as well, hitting him at a clip of .375.
Along with the 10 runs he’s allowed in his last two starts, Bailey has surrendered 21 hits in just 8.2 innings. Not good at all. Chase Anderson could be better lately. He enters Monday with an ERA of 6.14 in his last three starts. However, he gets a Reds lineup that he’s found success against. In his last outing against the Reds, he held them to 1 run in an 8-2 victory back on June 29th. Overall, the Reds are hitting .217 against Anderson in 83 at-bats. Note that Votto brings that average up, so take his .286 out of the equation and it’s lower. Anderson should be able to respond for a nice outing against the Reds. They will likely come down to earth after sweeping the Giants. I see a 6-3 or 7-4 win for the Brewers in this spot on Monday.