Reds vs. Brewers MLB Pick – July 22nd

Milwaukee return home to Miller Park after a successful weekend in the desert against the Diamondbacks. The Brewers won three of four games to get a few big wins before returning home to play the Cincinnati Reds. They advanced to 5-1 in their previous six games. San Diego were able to grab a win at Wrigley yesterday to help the Brewers out.

It’s a three-team race in the NL Central, with the Cardinals, Brewers, and Cubs all within 2.5 games. A record of 54-45 is what it takes to be atop the division at the moment. The Cubs are in San Francisco for what could be a trap series out west. San Fran have been playing much better baseball lately and are giving themselves a chance to catch a wildcard and go to the play-in game.

The Reds are going to have to get going soon if they want to be the team playing in that game. Losing three of four games to the Cardinals is not how you go about playing catch up. It seems awfully doubtful that they have it in them to go on a run to get a postseason berth.

They’re 7 games behind in the wildcard race, which situates them behind eight teams who are on the outside looking in. With that in mind, Yasiel Puig may be an attractive piece of bait to set up a trade. There are a few teams out there who would likely overpay for his services despite his expensive contract. Puig has been heating up recently as well following a slow start to his career in Cincinnati, so the Reds could fetch a nice haul in return.

With the postseason getting further out of reach by the day, it’s a realistic scenario that the Reds are likely to entertain. The Reds will send out Sonny Gray, who has evolved into an ace alongside Luis Castillo in the rotation, will get the nod starting Monday. Those two alone should have the Reds in a better position than a record of 44-53. Chase Anderson will counter in the Brewers first game since a 5-4 win over the Braves on the 17th. Head below for our free Reds vs. Brewers pick.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Brewers -130/Reds +110
  • O/U: 9

Pitching Matchup:

  • Sonny Gray (5-6, 3.40 ERA)
  • Chase Anderson (5-2, 3.96 ERA)

Betting odds provided by bovada.lv

Sonny Gray has looked like an entirely different pitcher in a Reds’ uniform than he did with the Yankees in the Bronx. Could it have been the pressure of playing in a big market that got to Gray? He looked different as a Yankee than with the Athletics as well. Gray went from ace to getting booed off the mound in New York. He’s back to being applauded with the Reds, as he carries an ERA of 3.40 and 1.13 WHIP into tonight. Gray has been at his best of late, with a 1.29 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in his last three outings.

The last time he gave up more than 2 runs was on June 21st against this Brewers squad, but he also has two stellar outings against Milwaukee this year. On May 21st Gray didn’t allow a run in 5 innings, and then July 3rd he went 8 innings against the Brewers without allowing a run. Milwaukee are hitting .224 with 2 long balls against Gray in 98 at-bats, so overall, he’s won the battle against this lineup in his seven-year career. He hasn’t been bothered by pitching on the road, as he’s posted an ERA of 3.35 and 1.16 WHIP.

Gray takes on Chase Anderson of the Brewers, who has been in a nice groove recently as well. He hasn’t been on Gray’s pace with a 1.29 ERA in his last three outings, but he’s been sharp nonetheless, with a 2.45 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in his previous three outings. Anderson has prevented more than 2 runs in five straight starts.

His best came in his most recent outing, as he held the Braves to just 1 hit in 5.2 innings. He’s also been better at home, with a 3.88 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at home as opposed to a 4.06 ERA and 1.58 WHIP on the road. Cincinnati are hitting just .233 against righties in 2019. There’s been an average of only 4.3 runs scored in the Reds and Brewers last three meetings. With Gray and Anderson both locked in at the moment, expect a score on the lower side in this matchup as well.

The Bet
UNDER 9
Kyle E
Kyle E / author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.