Reds vs. Brewers MLB Pick – July 23rd

A relatively uneventful night got interesting in a hurry last night in Milwaukee at Miller Park. From a 1-1 game to 4-1 for the Reds, and then a grand slam by the Brewers in the bottom of the 8th to take the lead with one swing of the bat. Eugenio Suarez immediately responded with the Reds on life support in the 9th, though.

He connected for a 2-run bomb over the fence to give the Reds a 6-5 lead and eventual win. Bad beat on the UNDER, but it’s impossible to avoid bad beats in Major League Baseball this season. Out of control bullpens have made bad beats a nightly occurrence.

Just about every team in the majors has been on both sides of the equation. The Brewers were on the wrong side last night, as their 5-1 run was snapped with one swing of the stick by Suarez. Following a record of 3-1 against the Diamondbacks in Arizona, the Brewers returned home to a hard loss at Miller Park.

Enough losses like that will pile up on a team at the end of the season. For a club like the Brewers, they can’t afford many more of those in August and September. They’re in a three-team race for the NL Central crown, with the Cubs currently atop the division going into Tuesday.

With how bad the NL Central has been this season, the winner of the division may be the only squad going to the postseason. A wildcard for the second-place team is not going to be easy to accomplish. If it were up to me, no team should be going to the postseason from this division, at least if nobody takes control.

Nobody looks like a playoff team right now. The Brewers and Cubs both blew late leads last night. Zach Davies, who has been on fire, will attempt to give the Brewers a lift Tuesday night. The Reds will turn to Tanner Roark as their starter in this spot. Head below for our free Reds vs. Brewers pick.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Brewers -135/Reds+115
  • O/U: 9.5

Pitching Matchup:

  • Tanner Roark (5-6, 3.97 ERA)
  • Zach Davies (8-2, 2.79 ERA)

Betting odds provided by bovada.lv

Zach Davies has been on a nice run recently for the Brewers. He’s settled in as the ace of the club on a team that typically gets spotty pitching. Davies has been far from spotty. He’s gotten his ERA up to 2.79 with a 1.32 WHIP in 109.2 innings pitched. After allowing 4 runs to the Mariners on June 25th, Davies hasn’t yielded more than a run per start. He allowed 1-run twice and 0 twice.

In his last three outings, Davies has been on fire with a 0.50 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He’s allowed no home runs during that time, which goes across 18 innings of play. The Brewers have won both Davies starts against the Reds this season. He was sharp in the one game, with 2 runs allowed in a 4-3 win. However, the offense carried the load in a 13-9 final on May 22nd. Davies lasted just 3 innings, having surrendered 6 runs for his worst appearance of the season. Tanner Roark must pitch better Tuesday in Milwaukee than he has recently or it’s going to be a long night for him.

Roark comes into this one with a 7.16 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in his last three starts. One of those poor starts was against the Brewers, as he allowed 6 hits and 4 earned runs in 6.2 innings of work. The Brewers walked across the finish line with a 7-1 win in their back pocket. Following a 2.83 ERA with the Nats in 2016, Roark has regressed with a 4.67 ERA and 4.34 ERA the last two seasons. He is in danger of having his ERA eclipse above 4.00 for the third straight year. With Davies red-hot, consider giving the Brewers a look to respond after blowing a 1-run lead in the 9th last night.

The Bet
BREWERS
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.