Reds vs. Brewers MLB Pick – September 26th

We grabbed an easy winner to get back on the right side of life with the Dodgers cruising to a 9-3 win, their 100th victory on the season. They were previously just 5-20 ATS in their last 25 games – a stunningly bad streak for a team that was flirting with baseball immortality just four weeks ago, but a true stat nonetheless. If nothing else, if makes the National League Playoffs REALLY interesting, especially if we get a Final Four of Arizona vs. Los Angeles and Chicago vs. Washington. That’s a week of baseball you can’t turn your eyes away from, and I can’t wait.

Alas, we have to. Wait. A few more days…

Two teams that CAN’T wait are the Brewers and Cardinals. The Rockies lost 5-4 to the Marlins last night (baseball, right?) but the Cards got smoked by the Cubs (who can clinch tonight) and the Brewers had to sit at home and wait. Both are two games back with just six left to play.

Let’s see if we can have a big week leading up to the postseason.

Today’s MLB Pick:

Cincinnati Reds +175 at Milwaukee Brewers -185 (Total: 9.5)
Deck McGuire vs. Zach Davies

Why not, right? If you are the Reds, looking 90+ losses square in the face for the third straight season, you might as well see what you have down on the farm. Hence the start for Deck tonight, a September call-up after going 9-9 with a 2.79 ERA in 28 games for Double-A Pensacola. He will have his work cut out for him tonight against the Brewers who are desperate for some wins this week and can ill-afford a single loss to the lowly Reds.

Zach Davies is the right guy to have the ball tonight. He has faced Cincinnati three times this season, going 1-1 with a 2.30 ERA. He held the Reds to just a single earned run in 5 2/3 innings during the Brewers sweep earlier this month.

It is unlikely that Deck goes deep in the game, so figure at least four innings of work is forthcoming from the worst bullpen in the league. That lends favorably to this game getting out of hand and a nice runline cover for Milwaukee. They aren’t a great value at -185, but the runline number of +104 has some better muscle. I’ll head to a big win for the Brewers to keep the heat on Colorado for at least a few more days.

The Reds have dropped five in a row and have lost seven of their last nine on the road. They’ve lost five of their last six in Miller Park. Milwaukee is 5-2 ATS in their last seven against the Reds as well, and with the bullpen likely to factor so heavily, I think they get another ATS win tonight.


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