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Reds vs. Brewers MLB Pick – August 21st

A swing and a miss for the Reds last night, as they played the Brewers hard, but things unraveled late. The Brewers pulled away to secure a 5-2 win over the Reds to get the week started on Monday. Chase Anderson took a hit early, but settled down and ultimately pitched a nice game for the home team. It was a needed win for the Brewers who are trying desperately to find the postseason.

They can do it by catching the Cubs or earning a wildcard. Milwaukee are currently in possession of a wildcard, but the margin for error is so small. They’re 3 games behind the Cubs for 1st, which isn’t going to be an easy chore to play catch up. 3 games doesn’t seem like much, but the Cubs aren’t likely going to just go away.

The Reds were impressive over the weekend with a sweep of the Giants. However, there isn’t much icing on the cake for the Reds. They are well out of the picture and the injury to Joey Votto may have signaled the unofficial end of the year for Cincinnati. This does provide some other guys an opportunity to step up, though.

Scooter Gennett and Eugenio Suarez still have heavy bats that can get the job done. Offensively this team isn’t all that bad, but when the rotation features Homer Bailey and Sal Romano it’s going to be difficult to win ball games. Bailey actually did pitch a good game last night, though. With that said, he’s not a guy that is going to consistently provide solid innings. Romano will get the nod for the Reds in this matchup, while the Brewers are scheduled to go with Junior Guerra. Head below for our free Reds vs. Brewers pick.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick

Sal Romano (7-10, 5.31 ERA) vs. Junior Guerra (6-8, 3.73 ERA)

For Junior Guerra, he just wants to keep his ERA below 4.00. He’s improved from 2017, which didn’t go so well for him. Guerra finished with a 5.14, on the heels of a quality year in his sophomore campaign in 2016. He is easily going to surpass what he did in 2017 this season. But, he has been showing signs of slowing down. Guerra has been on a downward slope for over a month now.

He had a 2.79 ERA on July 8th, but his numbers have been slipping in the wrong direction since. In his last seven starts, Guerra has posted a 5.73 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. He enters with a 5.60 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in his last three outings. The Reds are hitting .266 with 5 long balls in 64 at-bats against Guerra. Note that Votto doesn’t have the best history against him, so it might not be the biggest lost that he isn’t in the lineup. Votto is hitting .214 against Guerra, while Suarez is hitting .667 and Billy Hamilton .300.

Romano should be advised to stay away from Ryan Braun here. Braun has made easy work of Romano with a .462 average in 13 at-bats. Overall, the team is hitting .258 with 4 long balls in 66 at-bats. He is coming off a horrid outing in which he gave up 7 hits and 6 runs in only 1.2 innings of work. In his last three outings, Romano holds an ERA of 7.62 with a 1.69 WHIP and .371 OBA. The Brewers’ bats were quiet until they broke out late. I expect the offense to be able to handle Romano and carry their late success on Monday over to tonight. Guerra has a bit of a wildcard recently, though, so I think the safe play here is on the OVER.

The Bet: OVER 9 (-110)

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