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Reds vs. Brewers Pick MLB – May 28th

It feels like piling on, but we continued to cash winners at the “anyone but the Reds” window last night with relatively easy results.  The Reds jumped out early, but there was little to fear with their pitching staff, nearly all fully equipped with gas canisters to turn any lead into a sizeable deficit at a moment’s notice.  The Brewers won the game 7-5, handing the Reds their eleventh straight defeat.  I believe I mistakenly said the Reds had lost 11 in a row in yesterday’s column, but surely I can be forgiven for jumping the gun a bit… or maybe I was just calling my shot?

Alas, we will try to keep the good times rolling today.  It seems reasonable to fish in the same pond today, given the fact the Reds are sending out Alfredo Simon who STILL totes a double-digit ERA two months into the season, but there are some other nice games on the slate.  Adam Wainwright and Gio Gonzalez hook up in Washington and Kenta Maeda and Noah Syndergaard give it a go in New York.  Madison Bumgarner gets the ball for the Giants and Zack Greinke tries to string together a second solid start at home against the Padres.

But who are we kidding?  There’s some free money out there, so let’s go grab it.

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Today’s Free Pick:

Cincinnati Reds +140 at Milwaukee Brewers -150 (Total: 9.5)

Alfredo Simon (1-5, 10.16 ERA) vs. Chase Anderson (2-6, 5.33 ERA)

So, not to be lazy but…yesterday’s column?  Um.  Ditto.

The Reds still haven’t won in two weeks.  They still have easily the worst ERA in all of baseball.  Their bullpen is bad to a degree that defies all logic and metrics and statistical likelihood and they are now 3-18 on the road for the season.

Only today you can also add in “starting pitcher with an ERA over TEN.”  Yup.  OVER TEN.  And lest you think this is a small sample size issue, Simon had made eighty starts this season.  Two of them were “quality starts” and he allowed three runs in those even.  He has allowed more (or as many) runs than innings pitched five times already in 2016.  Batters are hitting .372 against him this season and he allows an average of well over two base runners per inning.  And they are STILL HANDING HIM THE BALL!  SO in homage to Bill Simmons, Your 2016 Cincinnati Reds, ladies and gentlemen!

Not that Chase Anderson enters with Jake Arrieta numbers.  Chase has a gaudy ERA himself, an opponent batting average of .271 and a few lousy starts on the resume.  But his last three outing have seen him allow three runs or less and he should benefit from a road-weary Reds lineup today.

Who need analysis when one team loses every game they play and is sending out the worst statistical starting pitcher of any innings qualifier in 2016?  Take the Brewers.  Or make accurately, ‘fade the Reds’ until further notice.  To steal a little extra value today, I’m going to also take the Brew Crew on the runline at +125.  If you split the wager between the two, and we hit, we are getting an averaged payout of -115.  If you want to go all in on the runline, I am not opposed.  I’m splitting mine just in case Chase gives up a ton of runs as well and forces the Reds bullpen to lose in dramatic fashion.

Today’s Free Pick: Milwaukee Brewers to WIN -150 and Brewers RUNLINE -1.5 (+120)