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Reds vs. Cardinals Pick MLB – September 28th

If I would have just left well enough alone, we’d be cruising confidently on a four game winning streak with yet another easy even money winner.  But the shiny gem at the bottom of the lake stole my attention, and I took a grasp at a monster underdog.  The Reds were a decent value last night, as the mediocre performance from the Cardinals pitching, and Adam Wainwright, proved.  But the Cards offensive woes evaporated in a major way as they exploded for 12 runs and easily beat the Reds 12-5.  I LOVED the OVER – it was free money in my eyes, and, as it turned out, in actuality.  The longshot +200 flyer on the Reds failed.

So all in all, call it a day on the treadmill; a little bit of running to end up in the same place, and the winning week is no worse for the wear aside from what could have been…

Speaking of “what could have been”, none of the wildcard candidates can wake up with any regrets today as ALL scored exactly a dozen runs apiece in notching blowout wins to keep the race knotted.  It is a bizarre coincidence for sure.  Not that such a line existed, but a wager for all three wildcard contenders to score exactly 12 runs each on the same night would have to be a parlay of record and epic proportions…

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Today’s Free Pick:

Cincinnati Reds +140 at St. Louis Cardinals -148 (Total: 8)

Anthony DiSclafani (8-5, 3.38 ERA) vs. Mike Leake (9-11, 4.72 ERA)

First off, if you are annoyed with me continually writing about the Reds and Cardinals for the third straight day, my apologies.  But as much as I loved the OVER the last two days (correctly, for the record), I like the value of another underdog play tonight, but have no choice but to go back to the OVER well that keeps paying off handsomely.

My affinity for DiSclafani and his underdog value has been a recurring theme, and a successful one for me, for the second half of 2016.  Tonight might be the oddest big plus-money line yet, given Leake’s woes against his former team and the Cardinals home field struggles.  This should be a much more even line.

Mike Leake’s next good start against his former mates will be his first.  He owns a whopping 8.31 ERA against the Reds this season.  The Reds are simply teeing off on Leake with a .347 team batting average.  He might fare a little better tonight, but to expect him to slam the door feels a little optimistic.  He has allowed 14 runs in just 19.2 innings on 29 hits in the month of September.

Meanwhile, Disco has been a rare bright spot on a plagued pitching staff, but he has cooled off lately.  He has allowed nine runs over 10.1 innings in his last two starts.  The Reds have lost his last three starts and the total has gone OVER in all three.

So, here we are in the same spot.  Tonight SCREAMS OVER for the third straight night.  There is also great value in DiSclafani being just better than Mike Leake.  The value of +140 is good, but if Disco is BAD, the bullpen edge goes to St. Louis who could slug their way back.  So, the moneyline on Cincy has some danger.  The OVER has far less.

Free Pick:  Run TOTAL OVER 8