I’m starting to think I should just stick to totals. My record with totals far out does my side bets. In fact, two out of the three totals I have lost in the last month was by .5, and the other on Thursday night busted because of a late inning push. Sure, a loss is a loss, there is no escaping that, but the games were still handicapped well. A bounce here, one strike there and I could have won all of my over under bets. Isn’t that the life of a gambler though? The woulda, coulda, shouldas that add up at the end of the day or month. The best rule to have as gambler is to have a short memory, so that’s what we’re going to do, and try and pump out a winner for Saturday. *Note that I won’t have a pick for Sunday, as I am going to be out of town until Sunday afternoon. I will be back on Monday with a couple of picks.
Free MLB Pick:
Cincinnati Reds +108 at Arizona Diamondbacks -128 (Total: 8)
Mike Leake (7-3, 2.64 ERA) vs. Patrick Corbin (9-0, 2.28 ERA)
Here we are wagering on another Patrick Corbin game. Whether it has been betting unders in games he participates in, or betting the Diamondbacks, Corbin has been absolute money. His 9-0 record surely reflects that fact. He came up just short the other night against Miami Marlins, tossing a no hitter through the midway point, but then he allowed a single, and a homer which tied the ballgame at 2-2. Corbin bounced right back, though, and retired batter after batter to give the DBacks a chance at the win. It wasn’t to be, as the Marlins stole one in the top of the 9th off of Heath Bell.
Corbin will try and pick up his 10th victory tonight against a Cincinnati Reds team that has been underperforming for the most part recently. As I type this, the Reds are tied with the Diamondbacks at 3 in the 5th inning (need to wake up early, why I’m writing this now). Regardless of what transpires the rest of the way, the Reds have some pop in their lineup, but it has lacked any real consistency. They needed 9 innings to just score a run against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday night. It has been like the Reds in June. A team that once relied on its offense has needed to be saved by their pitching staff.
Runs shouldn’t be easy for either offense tonight. I have raved about Corbin’s skills in a few articles already, but Mike Leake has been a bit of an afterthought. Nonetheless, Leake possesses the tools to go toe-to-toe with Corbin in a pitchers’ duel. He has an ERA of 2.64 and 2.25 in his last three outings. You can also depend on Leake on the road with a 2.34 ERA. Leake has also only allowed 1 homerun in road trips, compared to 6 at home. Corbin on the other hand, allows virtually nothing in the Diamondbacks’ backyard. The homerun surrendered to the Marlins the other night was his first given up at home, where he has an ERA of 1.71 and WHIP of 1.01.
If Leake and Corbin come and do what they have done all season then this total should hit fairly easy. I’m a handicapper that makes my picks primarily on statistics, if you follow the numbers all season it’ll add up to a winning season in October. That’s what I’m going to do here once again, so give me the UNDER 8 for Saturday night.
Free Pick: UNDER 8