Reds vs. Marlins MLB Pick – August 26th

The Cincinnati Reds go to Miami hoping to quickly put this past weekend in the past. They got punched out by the Pirates in three games. Pittsburgh made it look easy, especially on Saturday night with a 14-0 win. It was an embarrassing performance by the Reds, as Alex Wood and the bullpen got popped for 14 runs.

Failing to score a run against Trevor Williams isn’t a good look for the offense, either. The offense got going the next day on Sunday, as they had a nice day at the plate with 8 runs. It was not enough, though. The Pirates were a run better than Cincinnati, as they earned the sweep with a 9-8 win.

The Reds had high hopes going into this season. They made waves with a trade for Yasiel Puig and he didn’t even last the whole season in Cincinnati. Puig was traded to Cleveland when it was evident that they weren’t going to be playing baseball in October.

They got Trevor Bauer in exchange for Puig, who wanted out, so the Reds did get a decent arm in exchange, though. Bauer said recently that he doesn’t miss Cleveland at all, so it doesn’t seem that he misses the team too much.

Cincinnati go into Miami with a record of 60-69, which puts them squarely out of contention in the NL Central. Everyone was stuck in mud for awhile, and the Reds were not able to seize the opportunity. They are nine games back of .500 and just about the same when it comes to playing in the Wild Card Game.

In other words, there will be no postseason for the Reds in 2019. Cincinnati will have to start fresh in 2020. The one hurler in this rotation that has given the Reds hope for a deep run in 2020 is Sonny Gray. Gray has shed his reputation from his time with the Yankees and is out there having a standout season. He looks as comfortable as he did in Oakland playing for a small market team. Gray will get the nod against Pablo Lopez tonight. Head below for our free Reds vs. Marlins pick.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins Pick:

Betting Odds:

  • Moneyline: Reds -160/Marlins +130
  • O/U: 8

Pitching Matchup:

  • Sonny Gray (9-6, 2.92 ERA)
  • Pablo Lopez (5-5, 4.23 ERA)

Betting odds provided by

Pablo Lopez will make his long-awaited return to the rotation Monday night. He hasn’t appeared in a major league game since June 15th. It was unfortunate that Lopez had to exit, because he was pitching well before going on the IL. Lopez posted an ERA of 1.89 with a 0.89 WHIP in his previous three outings.

His performances at home have been sharp as well. Lopez has been on fire with a 2.13 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 42.1 innings at Marlins Park. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 runs in any start at home this season and that’s been against some good offenses, including the Rockies, Cubs, Braves x2, and Mets. As long as Lopez is pitching in Miami, then his arm seems to be locked in.

The only problem I have with Lopez is that his work in the minor leagues did not go so well. In preparing to return to the majors, Lopez had a lot of issues finding a rhythm. His first showing came on July 28th and he was rocked for 5 hits and 4 earned runs in 1.2 innings. It got worse in his next outing on August 2nd, as Lopez allowed 3 earned runs without recording 3 outs.

When it was all said and done, he finished with an ERA of 8.79 and 2.09 WHIP in five appearances in the last month. Some may want to point to his last appearance, as he allowed just 1 earned runs. However, Lopez also yielded 8 hits and had to work his way out of innings. That’s not exactly a smooth rehab stint for him, and now he goes up against a Reds team who have had success against him.

The Reds are hitting .368 with a .400 OBP against Lopez. They are going to he aided by Sonny Gray, who has been on fire lately. Gray enters with an ERA of 0.53 and 1.00 WHIP. His scoreless streak recently came to an end, as he allowed a run against the Padres. It was just the first run in four games yielded by Gray.

That three-game run was against the Cubs, Cardinals, and Braves, so he wasn’t picking on bad offenses, either. I think he’ll be picking on a bad offense today, though. The Marlins are 29th in scoring and should struggle against Gray here. After a putrid series in Pittsburgh, look for the Reds to have some pride and show up against the Marlins tonight.

The Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of The Sports Geek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at The Sports Geek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, and the NHL. Prior to writing for The Sports Geek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily at The Sports Geek.