Reds vs. Marlins MLB Pick – July 29th

Our pick was quickly vanquished when Julio Tehran allowed seven runs in a disastrous fifth inning en route to an easy Philadelphia win. The night ran counter to some powerful trends; namely Tehran being excellent on the road and Hellickson struggling. The reverse happened last night with Hellickson turning in an outstanding outing to perhaps heighten his trade value as teams considering a deal got one last impressive look…

Elsewhere the Brewers got a much-needed 2-1 victory over the Cubs to go back into first place, the Cardinals got a tense 1-0 win over Arizona and the Dodgers beat the Giants 6-4 to move to 32 ½ games ahead of their fierce rivals. That last one isn’t news, but it just felt surreal to type the Dodgers are “32 ½ games ahead of the Giants.”

Let’s get back on track with a winner this evening.

Today’s MLB Pick:

Cincinnati Reds +128 at Miami Marlins -138 (Total: 9)
Tim Adelman (5-8, 5.11 ERA) vs. Adam Conley (3-3, 5.62 ERA)

Even in games when the Marlins get solid starting pitching, they find a way to lose by more than one run. Last night’s 3-3 game quickly escalated once the bullpen got the ball, allowing four runs in the seventh inning and falling to defeat for the 12th time in 14 games post-All Star Break with ten of those twelve games being by the multiple run variety. Things are really bad in Cincinnati right now, and they haven’t even jettisoned any people in the trade deadline yet.

Meanwhile, Miami is in an interesting spot. They are likely well out of contention already, yet the local fans can’t be happy with them once again getting rid of all their talented pitchers. They are desperately devoid in the bullpen for the rest of the season, it will be interesting to watch how often the Fish cash in OVER’s the rest of the season as they are seemingly retaining their entire talented outfield yet willing to move ALL their pitching.

Adelman has turned in some quality starts this season, but like the rest of the Reds staff, has seemed to get progressively worse. He has allowed eleven home runs in his last seven starts and allowed a homer in 11 straight games. With teammate Bronson Arroyo retiring/injured it has opened the door for Adelman to move into “league’s best batting practice pitcher.” He has allowed more homeruns in the last month than any other pitcher in baseball.

Conley had his own problems with the long ball, which earned him a midseason demotion to AAA. But since returning to the bigs, he has been solid, posting a 1.38 ERA and striking out eight batters against two walks in his two starts. He has a career 2-0 record and a 3.38 ERA in his career against the Reds.

At this point, it is hard to go someplace on the board OTHER than “fade Cincy” They’ve been vomiting up runs and runline losing wagers like a broken ATM, so it is probably time to go back again with my hands out.


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