Reds vs. Marlins Pick MLB – July 27th

We notched a fifth winner in six picks yesterday afternoon as the Bronx Bombers hung nine runs on the Reds, seven on Homer Bailey, to continue both Homer’s and Cincinnati’s misery. The line was wide, but by muscling up on the runline, we grabbed near even money on the wager. Also on the Sports Geek, Kyle cashed a winner on the OVER in the same game as the Yankees took care of that number on their own.

It was a good day to be on the OVERs. A stunning six games tallied 13 or more runs and more than 75% of game went OVER the run total, highlighted by the Marlins ludicrous 22-run explosion. It this a summer heat wave plus a juiced ball trend to continue, or simply a really poor pitching day? It makes sense that run totals rise with the temperature, though I am not willing to go with 100% causality on that particular notion…

Speaking of heating up, let’s see if WE can stay hot and grab a sixth winner in seven plays…

Today’s MLB Pick:

Cincinnati Reds +125 at Miami Marlins -135 (Total: 9)
Robert Stevenson (0-3, 8.10 ERA) vs. Chris O’Grady (1-1, 5.40 ERA)

Remember all the nasty, ugly things I wrote about the Reds yesterday? Well, they are still true 24 hours and one loss later. They are now 2-12 post All Star Break and have lost 10 of those 12 by two or more runs, and half by more than four. It’s flat-out ugly in Cincy and the fire sale hasn’t even started yet. They have allowed 22 more runs than anyone else in the National League, and the bullpen, which covered up for the league’s worst starting pitching in the first two months of the season has imploded, and now ALSO ranks 30th in Major League Baseball.

Tonight, Robert Stevenson brings his gas can to the mound to face the Marlins who tallied 22 runs last night. Stevenson enters with a 8.10 ERA and a WHIP of 1.97. He is young and has MLB stuff, but so far, it isn’t translating into success. Add in the Marlins prodigious power and tonight could be another slugfest.

Chris O’Grady has his work cut out for him as well. The Reds, for all their pitching woes, have a really good offense. Joey Votto and Zack Cozart have been fantastic. Suarez, Duvall, Schebler and Genette have all been excellent. But score though they may, they rarely score enough to make up for the Home Run Derby from the other dugout.

I like a few picks on tonight’s game. First, the Marlins to win. But also an OVER 9 total. Both teams can score. Neither pitcher has been good in the majors. Look for some fireworks tonight in Miami.


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