Both Johnny Cueto and Jacob deGrom got back to their usual excellent selves yesterday, but the Giants bullpen (stop me if you’ve heard that one before) failed them and our Mets pick was able to cash in as the slight underdog. The loss made the Giants the first team in MLB to hit 50 losses this season. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, it is the first time the Giants have achieved this dubious distinction since 1974.
And as lousy as the Giants pen was in another disappointing loss, their day still wasn’t half as bad as the return of Homer Bailey to (hopefully) save his spiraling Reds and the worst starting staff in baseball.
It was an, um, less than stellar return to the Bigs. Homer allowed eight runs in one and two thirds innings to exit with an ERA of 43.20. The good news is, his ERA is quite likely to lower the remainder of the season everytime he gets the baseball. The bad news, is giving him the baseball doesn’t look like the quick fix Reds fans were hoping for…
Elsewhere, the Cubs beat the Marlins 5-3 and the Brewers fell in Atlanta to close the Brewers lead to just 1.5 games and the Dodgers won a second straight over Colorado and have a chance to end the weekend with a nice cushion in the West and the best record in the National League. Remember the Dodgers troublesome offensive woes?? Yeah, me neither…
Today’s MLB Pick:
Cincinnati Reds +145 at Washington Nationals -152 (Total: 10)
Scott Feldman (5-5, 4.20 ERA) vs. Tanner Roarke (6-4, 4.88 ERA)
We see it all the time in baseball. A radical, near record-setting blowout loss one day, only to have a complete 180 the next day. Momentum is only as strong as the next day’s starting pitcher.
We have a chance to potentially profit on a big underdog today with that exact mentality in mind. Tanner Roarke’s mates seem unlike to offer up the same 18-run cushion from Saturday, and if the bats do cool off a bit this afternoon, he is going to need to deliver much better results than he has in his last two outings. He has allowed 13 runs in his last two starts over 7.2 innings with a 5K/4BB split. In the month of June he has an 8.02 ERA and a WHIP approaching two. The Nats have lost his last three outings and he hasn’t delivered a quality start since May 29th.
And the Reds pitching might be dreadful, but they CAN hit. They are missing Cozart badly, who was the front-runner to start for the NL at shortstop, but they still have four of the Top 20 WAR players in the National League and have bats in abundance with Votto, Duvall and Schebler all raking and Scooter Genette putting up absurd numbers in his limited action. They have their best starter on the mound today in Scott Feldman, so they have a real chance to bounce back after yesterday’s humiliation.
The Reds have won four of Feldman’s last six starts and he has been throwing the ball better than his counterpart today. The Reds are in a dreadful tailspin, so today is a counter-intuitive value play to say the least. The Reds are 2-13 in their last 15 games, so you certainly could stay away from them with appropriate fear. For me, this is just a nice value based on the line and starting pitcher momentum. Much of the Reds troubles have been allowing FAR too many runs too early, but their bats are still dangerous. If Feldman can give another solid outing, the Reds have a real shot.
Today’s MLB Pick: CINCINNATI REDS TO WIN +145